MOSCOW, November 27. /TASS/. OPEC+ member states should extend voluntary oil production cuts at the next ministerial meeting on December 1, as market factors prevent the alliance from increasing production without negative effects, experts interviewed by TASS believe.

Eight OPEC+ countries, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, have voluntarily reduced their oil production by 2.2 million barrels per day since the first quarter of 2024. These countries planned to begin gradually increasing their production from from October 2024, but this increase has been postponed until the end of the year. 2024. Bloomberg said earlier, citing sources within OPEC+ delegations, that alliance countries could agree to postpone any production increases for several more months at their Dec. 1 meeting.

Director of the analytical center of European broker Mind Money, Igor Isayev, suggests that OPEC+ countries should extend production cuts due to falling oil prices. The drop in prices can be attributed to easing tensions in the Middle East, which decreased the risk premium factored into the price of oil, he said. “If oil consumption declines, OPEC+ may deepen cuts. Discussions about increasing production or restoring previous volumes are premature – further restrictions are more likely,” the expert noted.

Alexei Belogoriev, research director at the Institute of Energy and Finance Foundation, agrees that voluntary reductions are the most viable option at this stage. However, he sees divisions deepening within the alliance. “From a market perspective, there is no point in 2025 if OPEC+ can increase production without triggering a significant drop in prices,” the expert said.

He added that geopolitical changes, such as US President-elect Donald Trump’s possible anticipated crackdown on Iranian oil exports, could disrupt the market. The expert estimates that a sudden reduction in Iranian exports could remove about half a million barrels per day from the market for a short period.

Finam’s Nikolay Dudchenko also agrees that OPEC+ is unlikely to decide to increase production. “In our opinion, given current oil price levels, it would be illogical for the cartel to bring additional volumes to the market,” he stressed. However, he points out that U.S. stocks represent a major risk to oil prices, highlighting the possibility that an increase in U.S. oil production could affect market dynamics.

What could prevent OPEC+ from increasing production?

According to Isayev, the level of oil consumption, particularly in China, remains the key factor in the oil market. The expert notes that China has not shown tangible growth in its oil consumption in recent times, making its demand one of the biggest uncertainties in the market.

“At present, we do not see economic activity that would lead to an increase in demand for oil. Besides China, India, Europe, South Korea and Japan have great influence, even if in these regions the situation is stable Therefore, Chinese demand in particular will be the determining factor influencing the prospects for increasing production,” he said.

Meanwhile, Belogoryev suggests that there is no sign that oil demand will increase in 2025, as oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries strengthens. “The market is clearly on the verge of oversupply. Any increase in OPEC+ production will lead to lower prices,” he said.