Express Entry draws from previous years can help us make reasonable estimates of the number of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) we could expect to see issued for the remainder of 2024.

If the number of ITAs issued for the remainder of 2024, relative to the 2025 arrival target, was the same as it was on average for the years 2021 to 2023, we could expect that ‘IRCC issues approximately 3,522 IPDs via Express Entry in December.

That said, this number is only a reasonable estimate given the veracity of the above assumptions: the actual number of ITAs issued in December could be significantly higher or lower than this estimate.

In the rest of this article, we’ll explain how we arrived at this estimate, and also discuss some reasonable expectations for who might receive these invitations.

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How can we guess how many additional ITAs IRCC will issue this year?

IRCC problems ITA for the purpose of achieving a specific admissions objective – when a foreign national first arrives in Canada as a new permanent residentor when a temporary resident already in Canada obtains permanent residence.

There are two things to keep in mind here:

• Not all ITAs will result in a landing (some ITAs will be returned); And
• Landings will lag considerably behind ITAs due to processing times.

IRCC landings target set out in annual report Immigration Levels Plan.

The immigration plan details admissions, not ITAs. An admission, or disembarkation, is defined as the final interview with an immigration officer, either at a port of entry or at a local office in Canada, during which an applicant signs their confirmation of permanent residence (COPR) and becomes a permanent resident. This process can be carried out electronically also, but still implies that the approved immigrant arriving in Canada accepts their PR status.

Although it may seem easy enough to simply compare annual immigration targets to IPDs issued in a year to derive the number of IPDs remaining, this would not account for the lag between IPDs and arrivals in due to IRCC processing times, as well as logistics. to move from their country of origin to Canada.

According to a recently released IRCC memorandum in July 2024 addressed to Deputy Ministers and Associate Deputy Ministers of Immigration, due to the “lag between ITA (invitation to apply) and admission (between six and 16 months …), most ITAs issued between now (July 2024) and December (and until the end of February 2025, for the most part) will count towards the permanent residence targets of 2025.”

Therefore, a more robust method for calculating the number of ITAs remaining in a given year could be to look at the number of ITAs issued between July and December, relative to the Immigration Levels Plan target of the following year.

Assuming that IRCC will maintain ITA issuances in proportions consistent with previous (non-COVID) years, the ministry will issue a number of ITAs equal to between 43 and 46% of the arrival target of the following year, between July 1 and December 31 of the current year. . Outside of the COVID years, this percentage has remained constant:

After eliminating the proportion of ISPs to admissions in 2019 as an outlier, we can average the remaining proportions to get a general idea of ​​how IRCC manages ISP issuances. The average number of ITAs issued between July and December of a year, expressed as a proportion of the next year’s landings target, is 45.245%.

How many more ITAs could we see in December?

For 2025, IRCC has set an immigration target of 124,680 new arrivals via the Express Entry system. Between July and November this year, the ministry issued 52,888 ITAs through the Express Entry system. This equates to 42.42% of next year’s landings target.

If we assume that the proportion of PSRs issued this year relative to next year’s admission target will align with the average of the previous five non-outlier years, we might expect IRCC to issue a number of PSR equivalent to 2.825% of its admission objective. for 2025, in December of this year. This equates to an additional 3,522 ITAs issued to candidates in the Express Entry pool for the remainder of 2024.

This estimate is only a reasonable expectation if the above assumptions hold true. There is no certainty that what IRCC does this year will be consistent with what it has done in previous years. The ministry could issue many fewer or many more ITAs, as it sees fit.

The forecast also does not take into account several factors that we do not have visibility into, but IRCC likely does (for example, the average ITA refusal rate or varying processing times for PR applications).

Who is likely to benefit from these ITAs?

IRCC’s Immigration Levels Plan can also shed light on the types of candidates in the Express Entry pool who are likely to receive these ITAs.

The 2025-2027 level plan divides the federal allocation for highly skilled individuals (which includes Express Entry) into two distinct categories that will be managed by the federal system: “Federal Economic Priorities” and “Priority to Canada”.

These two categories cumulatively constitute all landings/targets via the Express Entry system in 2025.

The “Federal Economic Priorities” category (attributed to 41,700 entries) will include category-based selections for candidates who have professional skills and experience in in-demand sectors of the Canadian economy, as well as for those who have a solid command of the French language.

In 2025, eligible categories will include:

• Health professions;
• Commercial professions; And
• Mastery of the French language.

Targets for Francophone immigrants abroad Quebec are also expected to increase, from 8.5% of all admissions in 2025 to 10% in 2027.

The “Focus on Canada” category (with 82,980 admissions) will invite applicants already in Canada, with the aim of reaching targeted immigration levels, without further increasing the country’s population. Research also shows that these people tend to perform well in the Canadian labor market.

In 2025, this category will include:

*Note that the inclusion of PNP candidates in the federal economic targets is separate from the PNP-specific allocation, which is also included in the tier plan.

Based on the government’s stated intent, we could reasonably expect that many of the remaining 3,522 IPDs would be issued to CEC program candidates, PNP programs, to candidates with good command of the French language. and/or who have professional experience in the field of health or commerce. professions.

This trend is also reflected in the Express Entry draws held in the previous months of 2024. For example, consider the last 20 Express Entry draws held by IRCC (as of August 2024):

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