Oil prices fell slightly on Friday (November 29) and posted a weekly decline of more than 3 percent, pressured by easing concerns over supply risks linked to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and the prospect of an increase in supply in 2025, even if OPEC+ is expected to extend its offer. production reductions.

Brent crude fell 34 US cents, or 0.5 percent, to settle at US$72.94 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 72 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $68, from the last close before the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

Commercial activity was slowed due to the public holiday in the United States.

For the week, Brent fell 3.1 percent while WTI lost 4.8 percent.

Four Israeli tanks entered a Lebanese border village, the official Lebanese news agency announced on Friday. The ceasefire that took effect Wednesday reduced the risk premium for oil, pushing down prices, despite accusations of violations from both sides.

However, the conflict in the Middle East has not disrupted supply, which is expected to be more abundant in 2025. The International Energy Agency is considering the prospect of an oversupply of more than a million barrels per year. day (b/d), or more than 1 percent. of world production.

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“The updated snapshot insinuates that next year is expected to be softer than the current one and that oil prices are expected on average to be lower than the 2024 level,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.

The OPEC+ group, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, postponed its next political meeting to December 5 instead of December 1. OPEC+ is expected to decide on a further extension of production cuts at the meeting.

“After two postponements, the group must consider the risk of a further drop in prices in the context of the release of currently unwanted barrels, particularly because expectations of robust production from non-member producers of the OPEC+ next year could lead to a crude surplus,” the Saxo Bank analyst said. Ole Hansen.

Brent could reach $74.53 per barrel on average in 2025, according to a Reuters poll of 41 analysts. This is the seventh consecutive monthly downward revision according to the Reuters survey. REUTERS