Despite Trump’s best efforts, some of the American climate movement’s most notable recent victories have occurred under his leadership. More capacity of coal-fired power plants retired in the United States between 2017 and 2020 than between 2013 and 2016. It’s true: the coal industry was hit harder under a president who campaigned to revive it than under a president who was supposed to make war. Notice how Trump rarely mentions coal?

The reason is that the fate of coal only marginally depends on national politicians. Since the early 2000s, hundreds of local environmental groups, acting largely independently of large national organizations, have made things much more difficult for coal-fired power plants to be built or remain in operation. The natural gas boom also hurt coal, but the market shift was amplified by movement.

Oil and gas also suffered setbacks during Trump’s first term. In its final year, the pipeline industry faced a series of defeatsfor example, in the cancellation of the Atlantic Coast Gas Pipeline planned for West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina. Barack Obama appeared to support the project, Trump defended it, and the Supreme Court approved it. Yet, through a combination of protests and lawsuits, residents were able to “threaten the economic viability of the project,” as the companies indicated in their cancellation announcement.

Trump also suffered many quieter defeats. His efforts to enact additional subsidies for coal and nuclear energy, develop offshore oil drilling, for END tax credits for the wind industry, and force banks intended to finance drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge have all been blocked.

The movement was a key force in these victories. The polluters certainly think so. Midway through Trump’s term, a pipeline CEO complained about “rising tide protests, litigation and vandalism” facing the industry, warning that “the level of intensity has increased,” with “more opponents” who are “better organized.”

In 2020, industry representatives warned that an avalanche of adverse court rulings could lead to “a tipping point” where it becomes “incredibly difficult for anyone to invest in any type of (fossil fuel) infrastructure.” In the meantime, more and more lenders were “folding to pressure from activist environmental groups. These complaints all came from Trump, not Obama or Joe Biden.

Conversely, renewable energies have continued to develop. More from United States wind farm capacity has been installed under Trump than under any other presidential term, including Biden’s. Renewable energy hasn’t grown fast enough yet, but the fact is that Trump wasn’t the key variable. State and local governments, energy-using businesses and institutions, the financial sector, and foreign governments all help shape energy investments. They will remain crucial targets for climate organizers in the years to come.

Another factor explaining Trump’s defeat was the resistance of the ruling class. Carbon pollution endangers many other capitalists, who have sometimes mobilized against projects aimed at developing dirty energy at their expense. THE tourism and seafood Industries have protested plans to expand offshore drilling. Financial institutions began to discount support for fossil fuels due to “reputation” issues – i.e. popular opposition – as well as investment risk. This pattern was particularly visible in the coal sector, much more unequal in oil and gas.

Another source of elite resistance came from companies that had already invested heavily in renewable energy. They resisted Trump’s policies that would harm these investments. The growing wind industry threat divestment if its tax credits were repealed. Car manufacturers resisted reducing tailpipe emissions limits since they had already started investing the capital necessary to comply with the stricter rules, and for the same reason they are doing so now pressure Trump must not roll back Biden’s rules.

More recently, it appears that the deluge of “anti-ESG” (environmental, social and governance) legislation in Republican-led states has not significantly hampered renewable energy. In a 2023 survey, most investors and developers indicated that these laws have been undermined. no impact on their investment choices. Renewable energies still face contrary windsbut the results of the 2024 election will not make or break the sector.

On the government side, regulators and judges who were not personally beholden to polluters sometimes sided with the movement. Trump won’t be able to purge them all. Even Trump appointees were not uniformly reliable servants of fossil fuel companies.

The record of Trump’s first term can help us predict the sources of vulnerability of polluters during his second. Yet the restrictions imposed on Trump in 2017-2021 are sometimes misunderstood.

This is not the sage advice of Trump advisors, like John Kelly, whom candidate Kamala Harris advised. rented as a “guardrail” that held Trump back during his first term. Congressional Democrats have also not been the main guards in most of the battles mentioned above. This is good news for us, considering the crazies who will advise Trump in his second term, the Republican takeover of Congress, and the desire of many Democrats to collaborate with Trump.

Our movements were the most important safeguards. It is important to understand how we played this role. This has not been due to diffuse outrage over occasional mass protests, nor to lobbying or electing Democrats. We were most powerful when we took sustained, disruptive action. pressure on capitalists and state elites whose interests diverged from those of Trump.

Failing to understand that causality can lead to demoralization. Noting the limited impact of marches and petitions during Trump’s first term, some analysts have he asked himself sullenly if all resistance is now in vain. This is part of the reason why many liberals and leftists have been left in a stupor since Election Day.

Our fight will likely be more difficult in a second Trump term. Project 2025 is ready to explode, legal proceedings are now more favorable to polluters and Trump is assured of personal impunity. The damage will be serious.

We cannot predict who will prevail in each battle. But this uncertainty is itself a cause of optimism. We know that Trump and the parasitic interests he serves are still vulnerable. They would like us to forget that.