This week will bring cool and generally dry weather to the central coast, with periods of gusty breezes in some areas. Expect a few areas of frost in the interior valleys tonight, followed by a chance of light rain north of Point Conception on Thursday. A larger weather system could impact the region over the weekend, but details remain uncertain. Here’s what to expect over the weekend:

This evening:

• Frost likely in inland valleys: Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop quickly, especially in low-lying areas. Valleys in the Cuyama and southern Salinas areas, as well as parts of San Luis Obispo County, could experience frost with temperatures ranging from 33 to 35°F. Temperatures can briefly drop to 30°F in some sheltered areas. Coastal areas and areas adjacent to beaches will be milder, remaining between 30 and 50 degrees.

From Wednesday to Thursday:

• Milder days, sometimes windy: Highs will reach the 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Areas north of Point Conception in northern San Luis Obispo County could see light rain showers as a weak front passes through Thursday. Precipitation will be light, with totals expected to be less than 0.1 inch.
• Night fog and clouds: Expect low clouds and patchy fog along coastal areas overnight and early morning. This marine layer effect will continue until Thursday, with the fog disappearing by mid-morning.

Friday:

• Sunny and dry: Skies will be mostly clear, with highs in the 60s and 70s. Cooler morning temperatures are likely, but frosts should be limited to the colder valleys.

Weekend outlook (Saturday and Sunday):

• Potential for rain and wind: A developing storm system could bring wet and windy conditions through the weekend. It is difficult to predict details due to uncertainties in the storm’s track:
  • If the storm remains over water: The Central Coast may experience moderate rain, gusty winds, and possibly snow at higher elevations (above 7,000 feet). Rainfall could lead to slippery roads and minor flooding in some locations, so keep an eye out for updates if you plan to travel.
  • If the storm moves further east: Conditions would remain generally dry, with temperatures between 60 and 70 degrees and breezy winds. Fire concerns could increase in interior valleys if conditions remain dry.
• Temperatures and winds: Weekend highs will depend on the storm’s position, but could range from the upper 50s to low 70s. If the storm approaches, expect gusty winds in some areas, especially at high elevations and in open valleys.

Long-term overview (next week and beyond):

• By Monday and Tuesday, clearer and warmer weather is expected to return as the storm system moves away. Offshore winds could keep coastal fog to a minimum and inland temperatures are expected to return to seasonal levels.
• As the modeling shows, the period November 7-12 has a lot of “potential”, but with current models struggling for this weekend, you need to approach the road with a grain of salt. Just something to watch for as at times the models have called for significant rainfall.