ANKARA – As forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad make rapid and significant advances in Syria, Turkey is closely monitoring any excesses. Turkey, which shares a 911-kilometre-long border with Syria, has been a major backer of opposition groups aiming to topple Assad since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. The conflict has led to an influx of refugees and Turkey now hosts 3 million Syrians.

Turkish officials have strongly rejected allegations of involvement in the offensive by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as well as a Turkish-backed Syrian militia group called the Syrian National Army.

Analysts, however, say the offensive, which appears to fit Turkey’s long-standing goals, could not have taken place without Ankara’s consent. This allowed Turkey to push back Kurdish forces in Syria allied with its archenemy, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.

On Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared to blame his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad, for the recent developments.

“We called Assad. We said: “Come, let’s meet, let’s determine the future of Syria together.” Unfortunately, we could not get a positive response from Assad,” Erdogan said.

“These embarrassing marches that continue across the region are not what we want. »

Here’s a look at where Turkey stands, how the outbreak could serve the country’s goals, and possible risks ahead:

Links with Syria

Turkey has declared its support for Syria’s territorial integrity: the last thing it wants is an autonomous Kurdish-controlled region on its border.

Ankara has carried out several incursions into Syria since 2016 aiming to repel the Islamic State group or Kurdish militants and create a buffer zone along its border, and now controls part of the territory in northern Syria.

Turkey has called for a reduction in tensions and reconciliation between the Syrian government and the opposition. She participated in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, including holding talks with Assad’s main supporters, Russia and Iran.

Ankara has recently sought reconciliation with Assad in order to ease the threat Kurdish militias pose to Turkey and ensure the safe return of refugees. Assad has rebuffed Turkey’s overtures.

Where is Turkey?

Turkish officials have strongly rejected allegations of involvement in the anti-government offensive, affirming their opposition to developments that increase instability in the region.

“All claims that Turkey caused or supported this are false. These are just lies,” said Omer Celik, spokesman for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party. “What we want in Syria is in no way an increase in violence or clashes. »

Analysts, however, believe that the rebel offensive would have been impossible without Turkey’s green light. Despite designating HTS as a terrorist organization, Turkey appears to exert significant influence over the group.

Turkish officials say Ankara blocked the offensive for months. Opposition forces eventually launched the assault after the Syrian government attacked opposition-controlled areas, violating agreements between Russia, Iran and Turkey aimed at de-escalating the conflict.

The offensive was initially expected to be limited, officials said, but expanded after Syrian government forces began withdrawing from their positions.

Gonul Tol, director of the U.S.-based Middle East Institutes Turkish Program, says Ankara does not have full control over HTS, but has provided indirect support, allowing aid trucks to pass through ‘in the stronghold of Idlib. The agreement between Turkey, Russia and Iran also helped the group prosper, Tol said.

Risks ahead

The offensive could pose several risks for Turkey, including stoking tensions with backers Syria, Iran and Russia. NATO member Turkey has sought to balance its close relations relations with Ukraine and Russia facing the large-scale invasion of its southern neighbor by Moscow.

Growing instability in Syria could send a new wave of refugees towards the Turkish border.

Tol, author of a book on Turkey and Syria, said that although Russia is concerned about the war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin would not be willing to see Assad fall.

“I doubt Russia will abandon Assad,” Tol said. “Syria is simply too important for Putin. »

Goal Alignment

The insurgent offensive has raised hopes that Turkey can achieve its strategic goals in Syria, including securing its southern borders and facilitating the safe return of Syrian refugees.

Since 2022, Turkey has sought to normalize relations with Syria. However, Assad insists on the withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria, while Turkey maintains that it cannot withdraw while threats from Kurdish militias persist.

Analysts say the offensive could push Assad to reconcile with Turkey and begin negotiations with the Syrian opposition.

Additionally, it could allow Turkey to push the Syrian Kurdish people’s protection units, the YPG, away from its borders. Despite the YPG’s alliance with the United States against the Islamic State group, Turkey considers it a terrorist organization.

Recently, another opposition force, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, expelled the YPG from Tal Rifaat, north of Aleppo. The leader of the Turkish nationalist party, an ally of Erdogan, called for then targeting the town of Manbij, held by the Kurds.

It is also hoped that opposition control of Aleppo will encourage refugees to return, with Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya noting that around 40% of Syrian refugees in Turkey are from Aleppo.

However, Tol noted that Turkey may not be able to control the HTS as it moves forward and pursues its own interests. “The question is: will HTS listen to Erdogan after gaining so much ground? she said.

Tol added: “HTS are a wild card. Does Turkey really want a jihadist organization to rule a neighboring country?