In the conference’s first season without historic powers Texas and Oklahoma, we’re treated to a pretty improbable Big 12 championship game as No. 15 Arizona State takes on No. 16 from Iowa State with a College Football Playoff berth on the line.

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The Sun Devils, led by Big 12 Coach of the Year Kenny Dillingham, came out of nowhere to finish 10-2 and earn a spot in the conference title game, despite being picked by the media to finish dead last in the league entering the league. season.

Iowa State, meanwhile, got off to a 7-0 start before losing back-to-back games to Texas and Kansas. However, the Cyclones got back on track and with a win over Kansas State and some outside help, they are playing for a conference title and then some.

The stakes in this one are quite simple: the winner is among the 12 teams and the loser is eliminated. As it stands, whoever wins this game will not enjoy a guaranteed first-round bye to the four top-ranked conference champions and earn the No. 12 seed — although that is potentially subject to change.

This is perhaps the most impactful match of this weekend as far as the bracket is concerned, and it’s also the simplest when it comes to understanding its CFP implications.

The loser of this game has virtually no chance of winning an at-large bid, so it is a de facto CFP play-in game. It’s possible that the game will have no impact on the standings, with the winner simply sliding into 12th place, regardless of who it is.

However, this is not a guarantee.

Had UNLV beaten Boise State in the Mountain West championship game Friday night, the winner of the Big 12 game could have taken the Broncos’ place as the No. 4 seed and earned a first-round bye , depending on other conference title games.

However, with Boise’s victory, the chances of the Big 12 champion taking home fourth place have decreased significantly. It’s not entirely unthinkable that the winner of this one could leapfrog a Broncos team that has struggled a bit in the standings, and Arizona State would probably have a better chance than Iowa State given its end of hot season.

But in all likelihood, this match comes down to a play-in spot for the No. 12 seed. Win and enter, as they say.