President-elect Donald Trump says stopping the trafficking of fentanyl across the southern border is a top priority for his administration. pledging to impose customs duties of 25% on all imports from Mexico until the flow of “drugs, particularly fentanyl, and illegal immigrants” to the United States is stopped to its liking.

Asset claimed Fentanyl overdoses kill 300,000 people each year, a toll he says is “probably much higher,” while incoming “border tsar” Tom Homan alleged in an interview with Fox News this week, which Mexican cartels have “killed a quarter of a million Americans with fentanyl.”

Synthetic opioids like fentanyl have become the leading cause of overdose death since 2016, devastating communities across the United States and causing a major public health challenge, according to the National Institutes of Health. Mexican cartels are the main source of finished fentanyl in the United States, officials say.

However, Trump and Homan cite exaggerated numbers, and Trump often misleadingly links migrants crossing the border illegally to the flow of fentanyl.

According to data According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 334,000 people have died in the United States from drug overdoses involving synthetic opioids, like fentanylover a period of almost 10 years, from 2013 to 2022. In July, the latest report from the CDC provisional data recorded more than 73,000 fentanyl overdose deaths in 2023.

More than 86% of people convicted of trafficking fentanyl in fiscal year 2023 were U.S. citizens, according to the American Sentencing Commission. Researchers say Drug trafficking organizations hire U.S. citizens because they face less scrutiny.

The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for comment at the time of publication.

The fentanyl crisis

Fentanyla synthetic opioid approved by the Food and Drug Administration for use as a painkiller and anesthetic, is about 50 times more potent than heroin, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration. It is frequently mixed with heroin and other substances and has been found in pills mimicking pharmaceutical drugs, such as oxycodone, the agency said.

Mexican cartels are the main source of finished fentanyl distributed in the United States, with China being the main supplier chemical precursors and the pill presses that cartels use to produce the drugs, according to a report released in May by the DEA.

The Department of Homeland Security find that by December 2023, more than 90% of fentanyl is stopped at ports of entry, which are designated areas where people can legally enter the country.

Customs and Border Protection data analyzed According to the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, 80% of people arrested with fentanyl at ports of entry between 2019 and 2024 were U.S. citizens.

Analysis of CDC data showed that opioid overdose deaths increased 56% year over year in 2020, then increased another 22% in 2021, when most migrants left. banned from crossing the border under Title 42a measure during a pandemic.

Fight against drug trafficking at the border

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum urged Trump not to fight migration and drug use in the United States through tariffs, promising to fight back with its own.

CBP reported recorded record fentanyl seizures in 2023 and 2024 and launched Operation Plaza Spike in April, a multi-agency effort targeting Mexican cartels and their logistics centers to disrupt fentanyl trafficking.

Drug policy experts say it could be difficult to stop all drugs from crossing the border.

“We want to make it difficult for criminal organizations to do business, but we have to be realistic about how difficult it will be to make that truly impossible,” said Dr. Jonathan Caulkins, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s Heinz College of Information. Public systems and policies. “Fentanyl is so extraordinarily potent that very small quantities can be sold for enormous sums of money. »

The flow of synthetic drugs is also difficult to stop because traffickers can easily replace any lost drugs, according to Caulkins.

“If we prioritize attacking the most violent and corrupt organizations, we can reduce the damage caused by the entire drug supply chain, which also helps in efforts to limit the total amount of fentanyl coming into the country,” Caulkins said.