According to Sergiy Makogon, a Ukrainian energy expert and former CEO of the country’s state gas network operator, Slovakia is unlikely to face a price spike and supply shortage if the deal expires, but it will lose about $1.5 billion a year reselling and selling gas. transit of Russian gas.

“The main reason why Slovakia is requesting this extension is … purely economic,” he said.

An early draft of the letter, seen by POLITICO, also mentioned Czech, German and Ukrainian energy companies, which did not appear in the final version. In this version, Moldovan state gas supplier Moldaviegaz had also provisionally signed the declaration, but its signature is also missing from the missive published on Tuesday.

Makogon says this is likely because Slovak businesses hoped to gain wider support for the declaration, but failed to gain enough support due to the controversial nature of the deal.

However, unlike Central Europe, Moldova would likely be affected by the end of the agreement.

This is because the pro-Russian breakaway territory of Transnistria, in the east of the country, receives heavily subsidized gas from Moscow via Ukraine, Makogon said. Without any alternative gas exports planned for January, the country would be left without supplies, forcing the Moldovan government to buy more expensive imports on the EU market, he said, and replace 70 percent of supplies in electricity in the country.

The Commission declined to comment. Moldaviegaz, the Slovak and Hungarian governments, as well as their energy companies SPP, Eustream, MVM and MOL, did not immediately respond to POLITICO’s questions.

Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting.