It’s easy to forget that after a group of House Republicans successfully ousted then-President Kevin McCarthyhis successor, that of Louisiana Mike Johnsonwas not the GOP’s first choice.

Or the party’s second choice. Or his third. Or his fourth.

Johnson was instead the Republican candidate. fifth choice when he was elected last year, which shows a certain weakness. In the months that followed, the Louisianan’s position didn’t really improve, and in early May 2024, there was even an unsuccessful vote – called by some of his own members – to take away his gavel.

A Political title published at the time said: “Johnson survived his first ouster attempt. Getting through November will be more difficult. The wording seems prescient seven months later. The Washington Post reported:

Although the Post’s report has not been independently verified by MSNBC or NBC News, ample evidence suggests that Johnson’s future as the top Republican in Congress is highly uncertain.

After Johnson negotiated a bipartisan spending deal To prevent a government shutdown, many of its members rebelled. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, for example, has already said publicly that he will not support his candidacy to remain president. Various other House Republicans – Eric Burlison of Missouri, Andy Ogles of Tennessee and Eli Crane of Arizona, among others – both criticized Johnson and wavered on how they would vote on January 3.

To complicate matters, Donald Trump would have expressed his disapproval of how the president handled the process to avoid a shutdown, and some Senate Republicans — including Missouri’s Josh Hawley and Kentucky Rand Paul — made some not-so-subtle comments this week about replacing Johnson.

Billionaire conspirator Elon Musk, meanwhile, held the speaker responsible for defending “one of the worst bills ever written.”

Sure, the president-elect, Republican senators, and the world’s richest person won’t be able to vote when it comes time to elect the next speaker of the House, but their disapproval of Johnson is emblematic of his relaxation on his hammer.

This is clearly not where the speaker expected to find himself the week before Christmas, about two weeks before House Republican Party members begin voting on who will lead them in the new Congress. On the contrary, after the Republicans obtained their tiny majority following the 2024 elections, Donald Trump effectively endorsed Johnson’s hold on the gaveland the outgoing president expressed optimism about his position within the party.

This optimism has now disappeared.

There was some chatter about Johnson inevitable a failure, although I wouldn’t go that far, at least not yet. The election for Speaker of the House will take place in 15 days, and the outgoing president can at least try to repair several obstacles before then. Additionally, it’s not yet clear who, if anyone, might actually want the job if the Louisianan’s bid for another term fails.

But the prevailing winds let’s not have Johnson’s backand the arithmetic of Capitol Hill does him no favors: as Punchbowl News report In summary, “Johnson can only afford to lose three Republicans in the field, given the resignation of former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) and assuming all Democrats are present.”

Watch this space.