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PICKERING, ONTARIO, CANADA – JANUARY 23: An aerial view of people ice fishing at Frenchmans Bay on Lake Ontario in Pickering, Ontario, Canada on January 23, 2024. (Photo by Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu via Getty Images)

(FOX 2) – With winter fast approaching in Michigan, scientists are predicting a year of slightly below average ice coverage on most of the Great Lakes.

Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron and Erie will all see less ice cover than normal during the winter of 2024-2025, while Lake Ontario will be at normal levels.

It would be an improvement after last year’s paltry results when a record minimum for ice cover was reported.

The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) begins tracking ice cover in early December, with parts of Lake Superior beginning to freeze over first. As of December 20, about 1.2% of the lake was covered in ice – largely isolated at the top of the body of water.

No other lake had more than 1% on Friday. Most of the expected ice will form in January and February.

A GLERL ice climatologist said he expected a season of mild ice coverage, adding that the extent of coverage was influenced by global seasonal trends that drive daily weather patterns.

“This year, the AMO and PDO bring very warm weather conditions to the Great Lakes region,” explains Dr. Jia Wang. “This will negate the cooling caused by this year’s ENSO neutral conditions, so a mild winter is likely.”

AMO and PDO refer to the climate systems of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, while ENSO refers to El Niño.

Lake Superior

Depending on where a person is located, ice coverage varies on Lake Superior. In the northern part of Thunder Bay and Nipigon in Canada, parts of the coastline will see some ice in December and will thicken by the end of January. It will be thickest in mid-February.

Along the Michigan coastline, there will be ice less than an inch thick through February, except in sheltered bays which will freeze earlier.

Lake Michigan

Ice thickness will remain less than an inch in February on the Michigan side of the lake, with the exception of Beaver Island where researchers expect coverage along the north shore and near the Straits of Mackinac.

Open water areas will not see much, if any, coverage until the end of the cold season.

Lake Huron

December will be virtually ice-free on Lake Huron. The north shore will see ice form in early January before accumulating near the Straits of Mackinac.

Moving down to Saginaw Bay, the ice will be thin along the shoreline until late January before accumulating in mid-February.

Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair

Although below average temperatures are expected across the lower Great Lakes in December, things will warm up in January and February.

Any visible ice on the west shore of Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair will not form until late January. This will be the thickest in Sandusky Bay. The banks will freeze for the first time in early February.

There will likely be no ice in the open water sections of the lakes.

Lake Ontario

Ice will form along the coasts in late December before thickening in January, but it is not expected to reach more than 8 tenths of an inch thick, which is expected to happen in early February.