The war in Gaza is slowly entering a phase where it can either drag on for months without a decisive victory or escalate into a broader and dangerous conflict engulfing the region. There is also a third option: Israel calls for a withdrawal and accepts a ceasefire plan approved by the UN Security Council. The question is whether Israel considers the current situation on the ground good enough to end it.

In recent months, Israel has gained the upper hand on most issues on the battlefield. The successful assassinations of senior leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah must be at the top of the list of successes. It began with three assassinations on July 30, when three key leaders were killed on the same night. Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in a targeted strike in a closely guarded area of ​​Tehran. In Beirut, an airstrike killed Faud Shukra, military commander of Hezbollah and number 2 in the hierarchy, while Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Iranian aerospace forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was killed in Damascus.

The September 17 pager attacks, followed by the successive elimination of Hezbollah’s top leaders, culminating in the assassination of its charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27, constituted a major setback for the “Axis of Resistance.” . And the assassination of Hamas leader and main architect of the October 7 terrorist attack, Yahya Sinwar, on October 16, capped this series of successes and acts of redemption for Israeli intelligence services.

The October 1 Iranian attack targeting key military sites in Israel was a setback, but the October 26 Israeli retaliation, successfully targeting three military sites in Iran, evened the scores. Also on the battlefield, the Israeli Defense Forces mercilessly shelled the Gaza Strip, particularly the northern parts, killing and displacing hundreds of people every day. Its operations in the West Bank, accompanied by the entry of tanks and troops as part of a ground operation on August 27, neutralized the resistance there, the focus of operations being the Jenin camp as well as the Nablus areas.

On the Lebanon front, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) entered southern Lebanon on September 30. Despite heavy resistance, the IDF managed to destroy numerous rocket launcher sites, weapons depots and even a network of underground tunnels. However, fierce fighting continues on the ground, although Israel has suffered numerous tank losses and a number of soldiers killed.

As operations continue, it is likely that Iran will launch “counter-retaliation” to the Israeli strikes of October 26. The upcoming US elections on November 5 would also mean that the window of opportunity that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had to operate with impunity may close as well. The media reports that Donald Trump has already asked Prime Minister Netanyahu to bring order to this mess and end the war before the start of his presidency (in case he wins the elections). In such a scenario, Israel would do well to review its war objectives and see if there is an option to exit the war intelligently, while the opportunity still exists.

Examining Israel’s War Aims

When Israel launched its counterattack on Gaza on October 7, Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed revenge, declaring: “We will take mighty revenge for this vile day. Hamas has launched a cruel and cruel war. We will win this war but the price is too heavy to bear.” Israel has outlined three war goals: to completely dismantle Hamas’ military capabilities, to ensure that Gaza no longer poses any future military threat to Israel, and to return all hostages safely. On September 16 of this year, after a security cabinet meeting, Israel added a fourth objective, the “safe return” of northern settlers to their residences.

A quick review of the war aims shows us that Israel is still far from achieving its stated goals. Although Hamas has been seriously degraded and its senior leaders eliminated, it is far from being “eliminated from the face of the earth.” Its ability to launch repeated attacks across Gaza continues to anger Israel, and the unprecedented devastation caused by Israeli strikes is motivating more and more cadres to join Hamas. As for Gaza, it has been bombed like never before. More than 42,500 people were killed, children and women making up the majority, and more than 2 million people were repeatedly displaced. Despite the devastation and ruins, the possibility that Gaza will be rebuilt and reused by Hamas or any other group to launch attacks against Israel cannot be ruled out, unless Israel decides to continue its occupation of Gaza forever.

Failure to achieve the third war objective, the return of the hostages, is the most critical for Israel. Increasing pressure is coming to bear on Netanyahu over his failure to recover the hostages. Meanwhile, the number of hostages still alive decreases with each passing week due to deaths due to Israeli action, crossfire, or deaths due to health problems or illnesses. Hamas has made it clear that the remaining hostages can only be released if and when there is a lasting ceasefire.

The fourth war objective, “the safe return of the settlers to the North,” also remains elusive. Despite heavy losses, Hezbollah’s ability to launch rocket attacks on northern Israel cannot be ruled out, even as Israel pushes deep into Lebanon. Even if Israel finally manages to occupy territory as far as the Litani River, longer-range rocket attacks could still continue in the future. The advent of armed drones has added to the complexity of the situation.

Where does this leave Israel? Despite many recent tactical successes, its war objectives remain elusive. So what can Israel do in these circumstances?

Ceasefire options

As we briefly discussed at the outset, the war is delicately balanced between three possible options: dragging on endlessly, escalating further, or ending in a ceasefire now while Israel still appears to be victorious.

Regarding the ceasefire, multiple efforts have been made in this direction. With the exception of a brief humanitarian truce in November last year, no ceasefire proposal has been accepted by the two warring sides. The most viable proposal, called the Biden plan, was presented on May 31 of this year. The plan proposes a three-phase gradual ceasefire, which Biden says will “bring all the hostages home, guarantee Israel’s security, create a better tomorrow in Gaza without Hamas in power, and set the stage for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians.

Israel initially confirmed that it had agreed to Biden’s proposal, but the very next day it issued a statement that Israel would not agree to a ceasefire unless Hamas’s military and government capabilities were totally destroyed, that all the hostages are released and that Gaza is no longer liberated. poses a threat to Israel. On June 10, even the UN Security Council approved the US-sponsored Gaza ceasefire resolution. However, with Israel’s withdrawal, the proposal was not implemented.

Later in August, following a joint statement by the leaders of the United States, Qatar and Egypt on August 9, a new “transition proposal” was presented to Israel and Hamas. Hamas rejected the proposed “transition proposal” because it added unacceptable new conditions. The main sticking points were Israel’s demands that the IDF remain deployed in the Philadelphia Corridor, which runs along the Gaza-Egypt border, to prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons into Gaza. Israel was also not ready to withdraw from the Netzarim Corridor that its forces had established during the war, separating northern and southern Gaza. The transition proposal also required Hamas to release the most vulnerable civilian hostages while the parties would negotiate the implementation of the second and third phases without any “guarantees” for Hamas from Israel or the mediators.

Most recently, on October 21, according to media reports, the director of Egypt’s general intelligence service presented the head of Israel’s Shin Bet with an idea for a “small” hostage-taking and ceasefire deal in Gaza. The deal would involve the release of a small number of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for a few days of ceasefire in Gaza. The “small deal” would then continue with further negotiations on a more comprehensive hostage and ceasefire agreement.

Recent developments

On October 30, Hezbollah’s new leader, Naim Qassem, indicated that the group would be open to a ceasefire proposal “under the conditions that we deem appropriate,” adding that the group would not request a ceasefire. -fire. There are indications that Iran is not keen on retaliating for the October 26 Israeli attack any time soon, with the Supreme Leader attempting to downplay the effect of the Israeli strike when he said that Israeli attacks should not “neither be minimized nor exaggerated”.

Another important factor is the support of Israel’s main benefactor, the United States. With the presidential elections just days away, it is clear that the period in which Israel could exert pressure on the United States and act with impunity in Gaza is quickly over. Even US Secretary of State Blinken, during his 11th visit to the region on October 23, said Israel should use its tactical victories against Hamas and Hezbollah in recent times and pursue “sustained strategic success” in Gaza .

Conclusion

The ball is clearly in Israel’s court. She can either pursue her unrealistic and perhaps unachievable war goals indefinitely, or she can think smart and use the opportunity that presents itself on the battlefield to end this war and bring her hostages home. Of all his war objectives, this is undoubtedly the most important and certainly the most achievable. It could also stop Iran in its plans for harsh counter-retaliations, which there are indications it does not like very much, as it would lead to unnecessary escalation.

Although everything that has been presented and argued may seem logical, it may not find favor with Prime Minister Netanyahu and his war cabinet, who have used this opportunity to push this war as far as possible, with the aim of to put an end to the threats weighing on them. its borders once and for all and to bury forever the story of a “two-state solution”, as also resolved by the Israeli parliament on July 18, 2024. As the window of opportunity rapidly closes, The question on everyone’s mind is whether Israel will use this opportunity and call off the war while it still holds all the cards?

Colonel Rajeev Agarwal is a military veteran and West Asia expert. During his service, he served as director of military intelligence as well as director of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. His X handle is @rajeevidsa. The opinions expressed in the article above are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Firstpost.