2024 was not kind to those in power everywhere.

THE “years of elections mothers of all» saw voters across the UK return the Conservative Party to power. In June, the African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority in South Africa for the first time. Japan’s long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in elections just two weeks ago. French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call early legislative elections this summer has backfired spectacularly. The three parties in Germany’s ruling “traffic light coalition” each won voter support in last month’s crucial national elections.

Will the United States be another country that sees the current administration slide into defeat?

From the looks of it, Kamala Harris should be able to turn the tide. Voters say the economy is their main problem. While the British, French, German, Japanese and South African economies are all struggling, the American economy is booming. The Commerce Department announced earlier this week that GDP growth was 2.8 percent in the third quarter. Unemployment is near its lowest level. The stock market hits a record high. Inflation has cooled. Overall, the U.S. economy appears to be doing well a good historical journey. Inasmuch as Wall Street Journal title said yesterday: “The next president inherits a remarkable economy.”

But Americans see things differently. Large majorities tell pollsters that the economy is bad. Equally large majorities believe that the country is I went in the wrong direction.

This disillusionment partly explains why the election remains a nail biter like racing enters its last four days. Republicans look confident that a close race is actually good news for Donald Trump. Polls in 2016 and 2020 significantly underestimated his actual levels of support. Add to that the fact that undecided voters often mobilize to challenge him in the final days of an election, and it’s easy to see why Team Trump thinks he will become the first president since Grover Cleveland 132 years ago. years of winning non-consecutive terms. .

Democrats fear a repeat of the mistakes of the 2016 and 2020 polls. But they hope that the 2024 polls will ultimately repeat what happened in 2022. The polls then underestimated the level of popular support for Democratic candidates for office. Bedroom. What was supposed to be a red tsunami that would propel Republicans to dominance in the House became a red net that left them with a precarious majority.

No one knows today whether 2024 will be more like 2016 and 2020 or 2022. Pollsters have been busy refine their methodologies this year to correct their past mistakes. They may be doing things more or less well this time. Or maybe by solving a problem they have presented others. And, as is often forgotten, poll numbers have a margin of error. All current poll numbers in battleground states are within their margin of error. Because the Electoral College votes are a winner-take-all process in all but two states, even the smallest polls miss could mean an unbalanced election result.

That means almost anything could happen next week. Votes could go for Harris or Trump in battleground states, making one of them a clear and convincing Electoral College winner. Or 2024 could be so close that vote recounts and lawsuits become inevitable, potentially producing a long political and legal feud that overtakes the divisions of 2020.

So will the United States follow or oppose the global anti-incumbent trend? The honest answer, four days later, is everyone’s guess, and no one knows. In elections, like in movies, you sometimes have to wait until the end to find out how things turn out.

Campaign update

As of this afternoon, more than 68 million Americans I have already voted. That was almost 43 percent of the turnout rate four years ago. Be suspiciousHowever, to draw conclusions about who will win based on the reports on the partisan and demographic composition of the vote so far. No one knows who early voters support, or who will or won’t show up on Election Day.

The Supreme Court ruled six to three On Wednesday, the Commonwealth of Virginia could remove some 1,600 names from the state’s voter rolls that it suspects are non-citizens. Two lower federal courts had ruled against Virginia, arguing that voter roll cleanup was coming too close to Election Day. The Court did not explain its reasoning. The immediate impact of the decision is limited. Virginia has same day registration. Thus, any citizen whose name has been mistakenly removed from the electoral rolls can still vote.

Government officials warn that foreign interference in elections accelerated and will probably be continue after election day as the votes are counted. Some efforts involve cyberattacks aimed at disrupting the vote. Other efforts involve misinformation and disinformation. For example, local elections officials in Pennsylvania identified a fake video showing the destruction of mail-in ballots in the Keystone State. Federal officials assigned the video about a disinformation campaign based in Russia. Others will follow.

What the candidates say

Harris and Trump both sought to make “closing arguments” this week. Harris spoke at a rally Tuesday evening on the National Mall. She mainly concentrated on his argument that Trump “is not a presidential candidate who thinks about how to improve your life.” He is someone unstable, obsessed with revenge, consumed by grievances and in search of uncontrolled power.

The vice president discussed foreign policy but did not break new ground. She repeated his wish to “strengthen, not abandon, America’s global leadership.” She also argued that “American alliances keep the American people safe and make America stronger and more secure” and that “autocrats support” Trump.

Trump held a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York. He mainly concentrated about her intention to “make America great again” and how “in less than four years, Kamala Harris has shattered our middle class.”

When he finally turned his attention to foreign policy, he reiterated his previous promises to make foreign producers “pay very high tariffs”, to “end the war in Ukraine, which would never have happened.” would have happened if I had been president”, and to “put an end to the chaos”. in the Middle East and prevent World War III from happening.

The fact that Harris and Trump both mentioned the world beyond America’s borders, but didn’t dwell on it or dwell on it, highlighted the fact that in 2024, as in most presidential elections, foreign policy does not determine how most people vote. But even if 2024 was not a “foreign policy election,” the vast differences between Harris and Trump on how the United States should operate abroad mean the election outcome will have a major impact on American foreign policy.

What the experts say

THE Financial TimesIt’s Alec Russell I took a deep dive on what Trump’s foreign policy might look like. What he concluded can be gleaned from the title of his article: “Trump’s Foreign Policy Plan: Embracing Unpredictability.”

The results of next Tuesday’s election matter not only to the United States but to the rest of the world. So it’s no surprise that people around the world are debating how the outcome will affect them. My colleagues at the Council on Foreign Relations asked tank commanders and academics at AfricaTHE Americas, Europeand the Middle East to weigh on their thoughts. Their responses show that assessments of the likely impact of the election vary depending on the winner and the region or country surveyed.

My colleague Lisa Robinson argued In Foreign Affairs that a Harris victory next week “would be consequential, perhaps even transformative.” Indeed, her election would “strengthen those who fight against tyranny” and “alleviate lingering doubts about women’s ability to make decisions in matters of war and peace.”

What the polls show

Pew Research Center examined what Americans think about the quality of the conduct of the 2024 elections. Democrats (90%) are much more convinced than Republicans (57%) that the elections will be very, or somewhat well, organized. This gap, which is eleven percentage points higher than in 2020, indicates that Trump would have substantial support among his supporters for a second “stop the steal” campaign if he lost by a hair again. If the election were sent to court, only one in five Americans would be convinced that the U.S. Supreme Court would be a neutral arbiter.

The campaign calendar

Election Day is four days away (November 5, 2024).

Electors will meet in every state and the District of Columbia to vote for president and vice president in forty-six days (December 17, 2024).

The 119^th The US Congress will be sworn in in sixty-three days (January 3, 2025).

The US Congress will certify the results of the 2024 presidential election in sixty-six days (January 6, 2025).

Inauguration Day is eighty days away (January 20, 2025).

Oscar Berry helped prepare this post.