The framework of the new accommodation It is almost certain that the government’s objectives will be out of reach before the electionvictim of a combination of time and politics.

Despite a commitment from the Taoiseach, resistance to setting targets from within Fianna Fail means the clock is about to run out, triggering a backlash from the construction industry. The episode, however, says a lot about the Coalition’s final days – and what’s to come in the election campaign.

A senior government official said there was now no chance the new targets would be agreed before the election. Tánaiste Michael Martin this week the importance of the agreed targets was downplayed, arguing that the ESRI and others published “rough” estimates of housing need.

But the manufacturers are not convinced. Far from being an abstract piece of political theater, publishing targets, they say, has real-world consequences. It triggers a cascading series of events around zoning, local authority development plans and even central government assessing the policy interventions needed to ensure targets are met.

“It’s not the elephant in the room, it’s the fucking herd of elephants in the room,” says one major homebuilder, speaking privately. They added that while politicians may want to campaign on different housing programs during an election, “in the meantime it’s really difficult, everything stops.”

A second industrial source agrees: “The whole system is in a state of stasis because it doesn’t know what it’s doing.” House builder Michael O’Flynnwho was sitting on the Housing Commissionsaid it was “beyond comprehension” that new housing targets had not been announced.

“Proper goals are absolutely essential for proper zoning and infrastructure planning. Instead, we get delays and additional costs imposed on the sector, which only makes things worse,” he said.

Housing will inevitably be a central electoral battleground. The government had set an initial target of 33,450 homes for this year, but there is consensus that current targets are considerably lower than what is needed for population growth. The Central Statistics Office reported 21,634 new homes delivered at the end of September.

THE Green PartyThe ESRI manifesto is expected to contain a target of 53,000 per year, based on the ESRI estimate.

Sinn Féin has already criticized the government for its inability to set targets, accusing it of “getting scared”. Fianna Fáil, meanwhile, is confident it can win the race for housing credibility at the election based on the progress made so far and the commitments made in its manifesto.

“There will be an independent debate on housing first and foremost, that’s realpolitik,” said a Fianna Fáil minister.

This week, the party broadcast messages about its housing record on its social networks. However, asking voters to support him again based on his record when so many people are still suffering from the severe consequences of the housing crisis may be a dubious proposition. An elderly person Good Gael The source summarized Fianna Fáil’s position as having fixed accommodation, but added: “Let’s be honest, if that’s the tactic it will fall flat for people who don’t have their own homes.” »

There is frustration within Fine Gael at the refusal of its Coalition partners to set targets, which comes against a backdrop where they perceive Martin as irritable and irritated by the Taoiseach. Simon Harris. The same figure said the whole goal-setting thing was “an excessive waste of time.”

“We could have signed last week and the system could have been ready as soon as a new government was formed. »

( Una Mullally: I don’t see voters believing Simon Harris’ message that everything is fineOpens in a new window )

Senior Fianna Fáil sources say the housing market is infinitely more complex than simply setting targets, arguing that signing up to new targets in the final days of the Coalition simply did not make sense.

All this politicking is part of a larger dance between coalition partners, trying to figure out how they can credibly criticize each other after governing together for five years, without fundamentally damaging relations – given that their fundamental objective is to reform a certain version of the coalition. the current government. They must also try to control their own backbenchers and ministers – which is likely to prove impossible at all levels as government TDs clash and build on old tribal animosities with seats in play.

While there is undoubtedly a political element at play, ministers also privately emphasize that a review of the National Planning Framework (NPF) has not been completed. This complex work effectively sets the next level of planning policy – ​​currently based on population growth observed during the 2011-2016 census period, which was well below current growth, meaning a new MFN is necessary.

Without an updated MFN – which must be voted on by the Dáil – the new housing targets would be something of a paper tiger – a policy commitment with no teeth. “You can have a goal, but without a planning framework to support it, it’s not much of a goal,” said one Cabinet member. The industry had been hoping for an MFN by the end of the month, but with no discussions planned in the Dáil this week, it looks hopeless.

Conor O’Connell, director of housing and planning at the Construction Industry Federation, says a new NPF is “critical” and that it and the housing targets are needed to here the end of the year, calling for interim measures to already address the land shortage. zoned and served by utilities in high demand areas. “The sooner this process begins, the better it will be for future housing supply,” he said.

( Stephen Collins: Outgoing coalition has a lot of work to do to convince votersOpens in a new window )

The government this week highlighted housing starts statistics that suggest a glut of new construction has entered the process – although those figures are likely inflated by the fact that housing start notices had to be lodged before at the end of April in order to benefit from exemptions from development contributions, which were in any case subsequently extended. One major housebuilder privately feared that instead of a looming construction boom, without the rapid adoption of new targets and a revised planning framework, “in the medium term, the production of housing would collapse.”

Housing experts also experience ongoing frustration with the political system’s acceptance of the true underlying demand for new housing. Ronan Lyons, associate professor of economics at TCD and member of the Housing Commission, says the estimates should take into account a structural housing deficit – housing that has not been built for the people who need it , leaving them stranded. As the country’s demographic profile changes, so do housing needs, with new needs for those stuck in the parental home – or for those aging out of oversized and unsuitable housing. This contrasts with setting goals based on the anticipation of new demand entering the market each year, Lyons says.

“Politicians focus a lot on the fact that the nurse and the caretaker are getting married and want to have children, and that’s what they take into account when they think about housing demand,” he says. Including those who are effectively trapped in the parental home would mean higher goals. “They need to be realistic about this, and the Housing Commission has done its best to put a number on the problem, but this does not appear to have been accepted by the Government.”

Last week, ministers discussed a series of six scenarios aimed at reaching an average of 50,000 households a year – “some more realistic than others”, a Fianna Fáil source said. The overall goal, said one person involved in the negotiations, is to add about 4,500 builds per year at the current rate, reaching more than 60,000 per year by 2030.

This government took a chance on housing, whatever its objectives. Now the battle between the coalition and opposition parties takes center stage in the election campaign.

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