If you open X or TikTok right now, you might be convinced that the VP Kamala Harris will win the presidential election with an overwhelming majority. Donald Trump’s lead is disappearing, even in red states, people say, pointing to marginal polling and supposed quotes from campaign insiders. Florida and Texas turn blue. More and more women and young people have registered to vote. And some believe the stars are aligning and astrological clues point to his ultimate ascension to the top job.

Or, depending on how your feed looks, you might find that Trump has this one in the bag. These believers cite a flood of MAGA hats in California, or a phalanx of children dressed as Trump (and, worryingly, Trump’s would-be assassin) for Halloween in the blue city of Philadelphia. Or that there is less support for Harris among certain swing state demographics compared to when the president was president. Joe Biden won in 2020. New Hampshire and Virginia turn red. Even X owner and Trump megadonor Elon Musk is extrapolating and framing early voting data to prematurely declare that the prized swing state of Pennsylvania “will be a decisive Republican victory.”

In an election cycle where national and key state polls have been neck and neck for weeks, voters are turning to X and TikTok to confidently declare that their candidate will win decisively. It’s a response to a time of extreme anxiety and uncertainty, where Americans are more polarized than ever and are being told that “this will be the last election” if their candidate doesn’t win. There are maps covered in blue and opposing maps covered in red, with Electoral College predictions swinging wildly. “Harris is about to win in a big way,” one said. Others, including Musk, cite an election map based on Polymarket election betting odds, rather than polls, as evidence that Trump will win. Each individual post might not matter as much – if not for TikTok and X’s powerful algorithms that relentlessly broadcast these posts to others.

This is the type of content that social site algorithms have long valued. Conversations on social media center around the extremes. People on the ends of the ideological spectrum are most likely to post their opinions on social media, according to a 2021 study from the Pew Research Center. Social platform algorithms reward “this strong trust and these extreme opinions and breed extreme reactions,” says Ioana Literat, an associate professor at Teachers College, Columbia University and co-author of “Not Your Parents’ Politics: Understanding Young People’s Political Expression on Social Media.” “ “If there’s a video that says, ‘The polls are too close to tell,’ that’s not going to be the post that gets the most likes.”

While algorithms are partly to blame, we also have a deeply human aversion to uncertainty. To silence the noise, we surround ourselves with others who are convinced that our common candidate will win.

Other social platforms have sought to distance themselves from this type of divisive political discourse. In 2016, there was a lot of brazen political dialogue happening on Facebook, where your opinionated uncle posted misinformation with abandon. Over the past few years, Meta has removed news from Facebook feeds. And earlier this year, the company took new steps to minimize political content on Instagram, Facebook and Threads. This all follows accusations that Facebook has “destroyed democracy”, as Megan Smith, the former US chief technology officer, put it. Despite efforts for change, misleading political ads are still prevalent on Facebook and Instagram, ProPublica reported this week. “Meta’s enforcement systems had already detected and disabled a large portion of the pages – and we reviewed and took action against the remainder of those pages for various policy violations,” said Tracy Clayton, a spokesperson for Meta. Meta, in a statement to ProPublica.

Since the 2016 and 2020 elections, the political reach of X and TikTok has increased. A recent Washington Post analysis of X published this week revealed that Republican leaders are gaining followers and going viral more often since Musk took over the platform. A Wall Street Journal analysis found that newly created (X did not respond to a request for comment on this story.) Meanwhile, half of 18-29 year-olds surveyed by the Pew Research Center say they watch political content on TikTok. A TikTok spokesperson declined to comment for this story, but directed me to a webpage that says TikTok’s policy is to label “unverified election claims, make them ineligible for endorsement, and encourage people to reconsider their decision before sharing them.”

Overconfident rhetoric is not only polarizing; this could have more dangerous implications. “If one side expects the race to be blowout and the other side to win, that lays the groundwork for broad support to contest the results,” said Sol Messing, a research associate professor at the Center for Social Media and Social Media from New York University. Policy. (Messing previously worked for Twitter, but says he volunteered to be laid off when Musk bought the platform in 2022, and declined the severance package to avoid signing a non-disparagement agreement .) “This may partly reflect this broader far-right strategy,” he added.

On X, there is now an Election Integrity Community, launched by Musk’s America PAC in late October. Here, people are encouraged to “share potential incidents of voter fraud or irregularities that you see while voting in the 2024 elections” – sightings that they would typically report to official government agencies for investigation. Many recent posts show clear support for Trump in his claims of election fraud and interference: On Thursday, a user posted photos of what appeared to be Ohio ballots with Trump’s name misprinted. Election officials, however, claim to have I have not seen such ballots.

While Trump has repeatedly said the only way he would lose would be through voter fraud, many posts from candidates and their famous backers don’t express the same swaggering confidence seen in social media feeds. news. Ads for Harris on Instagram implore people to go to the polls and donate more money, calling it a “moment for everyone to come together.” Michelle Obama says the race “is too close” and “we have to give it our all.” And even Trump is back on X, urging people to vote early — a change from 2020, when he demonized mail-in voting.

No one on social media has the answers to what will happen in Tuesday’s election. Reposting or anxiously liking election content may seem like the only thing we can do when time is running out. “We know this is a time of great anxiety,” Literat says. “It certainly depends on the context. But it’s also the content that really offers certainty or resonates with hope or with fears that also spread more quickly.” For now, the best way to alleviate that anxiety might be to get off social media until Tuesday.

Amanda Hoover is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, covering the technology industry. She writes about the biggest companies and technology trends.

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