close
close

Mondor Festival

News with a Local Lens

3 decisions the Blue Jays can make to avoid a Shohei Ohtani-sized mistake with Juan Soto
minsta

3 decisions the Blue Jays can make to avoid a Shohei Ohtani-sized mistake with Juan Soto

THE Toronto Blue Jays They are expected to spend big money on Juan Soto this winter in hopes of luring the four-time All-Star north of the border. It’s a exciting possibilityand it would truly instill a sense of parity in the ultra-competitive American League.

There’s only one problem. No one really believes the Blue Jays can do it.

Toronto was famous for Shohei Ohtani last offseason. At one point, the Blue Jays were even considered the favorites to land Ohtani, with fans diligently track flights out of Los Angeles as speculation mounted. Ultimately, however, the Blue Jays lost that race to the Los Angeles Dodgerswho signed Ohtani to a historic 10-year, $700 million contract.

The Blue Jays were just a lever to drive up the price of the Dodgers. Ohtani would never go to Toronto, whether he admitted it or not. After that, the Blue Jays faced trade candidate Juan Soto, but lost that race as well. He landed with the New York Yankeesa doubly cruel twist of fate.

New York found itself in the World Series this season while Toronto found itself at the bottom of the AL East standings. However, Soto is now a free agent and he opened the door to all 30 teams. Toronto should begin a serious attempt to sign the Dominican superstar, who could land a contract worth the same $700 million as Ohtani.

Here’s how the Blue Jays can actually succeed.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work at The Baseball Insiders Podcastsubscribe to The moonshotour weekly MLB newsletter, and join the Discord for exclusive information leading up to the MLB offseason.

The latest report suggests at least $700 million for Juan Soto on his next contract. That’s at least what the 26-year-old will ask for, and there’s no reason to think he won’t get it. With the four most financially ambitious teams in MLB – the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers and Phillies – all connected in Soto, this tab will accumulate quickly. The Blue Jays can’t blink when it comes time to put an offer on the table.

Toronto was willing to invest $700 million for Ohtani. Is there a similar motivation for Soto? What if it required something more than that? You have to wonder if we’d be having a different conversation right now if Toronto had offered Ohtani $750 million. Often the highest bid wins and Soto is a client of Scott Boras. If the Blue Jays really want to impress the four-time Silver Slugger, it could be as simple as submitting the best offer. Nothing says commitment like pushing the stakes beyond an area where even Steve Cohen is comfortable.

Now, it’s hard to believe Toronto would outbid the Mets or Yankees. It just doesn’t happen very often. Soto is a special talent, though, and it’s clear the Blue Jays are desperate to put a winning product on the field. Ross Atkins retained his position as general manager against the wishes of the fanbase this winter. His seat will start to burn if the Blue Jays fail to significantly improve their situation. Adding Soto would immediately launch Toronto into the playoff conversation.

There’s a non-zero chance Soto signs the largest guaranteed contract in MLB history this winter, without the major postponements that defined Ohtani’s contract in Los Angeles. If Toronto is comfortable with a $700 million budget to install Soto as the face of the franchise, there’s a good chance they’ll listen.

Even if the Blue Jays hand Juan Soto a blank check, the roster needs more work. Soto’s bat can mask many flaws, but Toronto finished 14 games under .500 last season — that’s not the kind of deficit a single player can erase. This will require more robust free agent recruitment.

If the Blue Jays want to do everything they can to woo Soto, the best method to improve the roster in a way conducive to that goal is to target Soto’s former teammates. The Yankees have a ton of free agents this winter besides Soto. I’m not saying the Blue Jays are going to pay Gerrit Cole And Juan Soto, but names like Gleyber Torres, Alex Verdugo and Clay Holmes could all appeal to Toronto.

The Blue Jays need pitching depth. Clay Holmes was a star weapon in New York’s bullpen. Anthony Rizzo, for example, is a free agent. He was a valued leader in the Yankees locker room and he surely has a meaningful relationship with Soto. The Blue Jays have discussed moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to third base. Why not add Rizzo first, move Guerrero to a more valuable position, and use Rizzo as a recruiting tool in the Soto sweepstakes? That, my friends, is called strategy.

Toronto can basically twist the knife deeper into the Yankees with each successive move here. Just imagine the Blue Jays siphoning off several key pieces of a World Series team from New York, which could lead to Toronto’s own playoff run. This is the kind of offseason Blue Jays fans dream of.

Juan Soto wants big money, but he also wants a chance to win at the highest level. The Yankees were in the World Series. The Dodgers won the World Series. The Mets were in the NLCS and never hesitate to spend aggressively. The Phillies are a must-see for the month of October. These teams can all convince Soto to win big and win often.

The Blue Jays, once again, were 14 games under .500 this season as rumors that disorder in the locker room and the combustion looms were circulating. How can Toronto convince Soto that he will have a competitive team not only in 2025, but for the duration of his decade-long contract? It starts by extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

There’s no doubt that Toronto can put star power in Soto’s orbit. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is coming off one of the best hitting seasons in recent memory, hitting .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers and 103 RBIs. He would have been an MVP candidate if the Blue Jays had been a better team. Guerrero has expressed his desire to stay in Toronto long term, but he is approaching the final year of his contract. without extension.

Achieving a long-term deal for Guerrero would guarantee Soto at least one All-Star running mate for the foreseeable future. At 25 years old, Guerrero’s excellence should align well with Soto’s. That’s actually quite a combination to build on. Guerrero won’t settle for anything below market value, which could mean Toronto will have to trade the Dodgers and offer more than $1 billion in financial guarantees between Soto and Guerrero. If the Blue Jays front office is willing to commit this level of resources to field a winner, Soto should be happy with where he’s going.

It’s hard to imagine Soto passing up so many big-name franchises to sign with Toronto, but if the Blue Jays are really serious, there are ways to win this bidding war.