The District 1 race for Pinellas County Commission is crucial for Democrats and an opportunity for Republicans.

With the outgoing Democrat Janet Long giving up, the race is on. The contest pits the political newcomer against each other Chris Scherera Republican, against the former mayor of Indian Rocks Beach Kennedy Cookiea democrat.

Democrats must keep their seats if they want them prevent further gains by the local GOP after the Republican Party claimed a majority on the Commission just two years ago. The Republicans are hoping for a turnaround this will consolidate this advantage for years to come.

Kennedy, who took part in the race last Mayis a native of Pinellas County. She served as mayor of Indian Rocks Beach for more than five years. She previously served as vice-chair of the Barrier Island Government Council.

Kennedy’s other public service includes work on the boards of the Tourist Development Council and as president of Forward Pinellas, the county’s metropolitan planning organization.

Scherer entered the race about two months before Kennedy, late last February. A finance major from Texas A&M University, Scherer has lived in Pinellas County for 30 years. He founded Scherer Development in 1994, a company that provides its clients with development services ranging from site selection and design to construction, leasing and property management.

Scherer served from 2010 to 2016 on the St. Pete Development Review Commission.

Scherer said he was running “to protect and enhance what makes Pinellas special,” which includes an environmental preservation platform; lower taxes; enact term limits; support law enforcement; and guarantee elections.

The race is likely to be close, but the signs point to a Republican advance.

The most obvious advantage for the GOP this cycle is a clear voter registration advantage. Republicans outnumber Democrats on voter rolls by about 35,000 voters, with more than 207,000 Democrats and just under 243,000 Republicans. There are also more than 168,000 voters with no party affiliation and more than 19,000 registered with a third party.

That means Democrats will likely have to rely on support from non-party voters and third parties, while also hoping for some crossover support from registered Republicans.

Although this creates a challenge for Kennedy, his support so far has resulted in bipartisan nods.

This summer, Kennedy obtained approval of Pinellas and Central Pasco real estate organizations, groups that tend to support conservative candidates whom they view as more lenient on property rights issues.

Endorsements for Kennedy so far include a bipartisan list of current and former elected officials and community advocates. This includes, among others, the Pinellas County Commissioner Charlie Justice; Pinellas County School Board Member Caprice Edmond; Mayor of Belleair Beach Dave Gattis; Mayor of Indian Shores Diantha Schear; Dunedin City Commissioner Jeff Gow; Mayor of Indian Rocks Beach Denise Houseberg; Mayor of North Redington Beach Bill Queen; Mayor of Redington Shores Lisa Hendrickson; Vice Mayor of Indian Rocks Beach Janet Wilson; Vice Mayor of Seminole Trish Springer; Indian Shores City Commissioner Bill Smith; Indian Rocks Beach City Commissioners John Bigelow And Jude Bond; Vice Mayor of Seminole Trish Springer; and member of the St. Pete City Council Gina Driscoll.

Scherer, for his part, rounded support almost exclusively from preservativesincluding Sens. Nick DiCeglie And Ed Hooper; Pinellas County Commissioners Dave Eggers, Chris Latvala And Brian Scott; former Education Commissioner and Speaker of the House Richard Corcoran; former mayor of Saint Pete Rick Boulangerformer senator. Jeff Brandes; and more. Scherer also has the support of the Suncoast Police Benevolent Association, among other groups.

Kennedy also faces a funding inconvenience. As of October 18, Kennedy had raised just under $151,000. Scherer, meanwhile, had raised nearly $169,000 for his official campaign, and nearly $175,000 more for his affiliated political committee, Friends of Chris Scherer. According to the most recent reports, Scherer kept about $34,000 in his campaign account while his committee ran dry. Kennedy only kept about $3,000.

The GOP has been eyeing Long’s seat for years, coming within striking distance four years ago, but narrowly missing the opportunity to flip his seat. Long defeated Former Republican Rep. Larry Ahern in this race by only 1 percentage point.

This year, Republicans are also competing for the Democratic-held District 3 seat. Charlie Justicewho also narrowly won re-election four years ago. Justice faces a Republican challenger Vince Nowicki.

It is widely believed that if Republicans flip even one of these seats, it will be virtually impossible for Democrats to recover and regain the majority in the next decade. If Democrats hold onto them, strategists say it could be possible to reclaim the majority within a cycle or two.

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