Why did an NDP election campaign in BC, focused overwhelmingly on attacking the character of the BC Conservatives, fail to prevent a blue wave that occurred in 27 votes close to overthrowing the ruling party?

Partly because voters didn’t really care about all the NDP slander. They were just mad about very specific issues.

This is the conclusion of a post-election survey carried out by the polling company Navigator, which provides an interesting overview of public opinion after the October 19 elections (margin of error +/- 3.9 percent, 19 times out of 20).

Navigator surveyed 1,000 people online from October 20 to 23 and conducted four focus groups.

Nearly three-quarters of those surveyed said they had seen and heard attacks from political parties during the campaign, but 76 percent of respondents said it had little or no impact on their vote.

This is an important finding, considering that the bulk of the NDP’s 28-day election strategy centered on daily controversial social media posts by candidates and Leader John Rustad to support the message. that the party was unfit to hold public office.

However, according to the survey, all these controversies had very little impact on voters’ intentions. More than half of respondents said they made their decision the moment BC United leader Kevin Falcon ended his campaign on Aug. 29 – before the NDP even began its negative election campaign. And 69 percent of those surveyed said they had decided who to support before even watching the televised Oct. 8 leaders’ debate.

The leaders themselves failed to enthuse either the public or their party’s bases, according to Navigator.

Rustad and NDP Leader David Eby enjoyed “quiet” support, and it only became more and more negative as the campaign progressed, according to the results.

Only 36 percent of people who voted for the NDP in the poll said they liked Eby, and only 19 percent of people said they voted for the NDP because of its leader. The numbers are even worse for Rustad, with 21 percent and 9 percent respectively.

These are sobering numbers for two leaders who will face support issues within their caucus in the months and years to come. This could encourage those who seek to challenge their leadership.

NDP supporters surveyed in the poll cited things like party ideology, a belief that the NDP was best positioned to tackle issues and trying to block another party as reasons for their vote, according to Navigator . For the Conservatives, by far, the motivating factor was simply a change in government and a reversal of NDP policies.

Voters surveyed were overwhelmingly unhappy about two main issues: the cost of living and the health care crisis caused by persistent shortages of doctors and nurses. Street disorder, crime and drug addiction complement other problems.

Eby said he would focus on affordability and health care with his new one-seat majority government. That means accelerating his promise of a $1,000 affordability check (tested on income) for British Columbia households.

The NDP is still negotiating with the BC Greens to gain the support needed for its slim majority. The Greens campaigned for maintaining the carbon tax. But 67 percent of poll respondents said they favored eliminating it (if Ottawa ever allowed the province to do so), with majority support from all party supporters, including the Columbia Greens -British.

These numbers, combined with major concerns about affordability, should give the NDP pause before striking a deal with the Greens that trades votes for an increased carbon tax.

Ultimately, the NDP’s saving grace may be that voters would rather give it a chance to make things right, with 62 percent of people across all parties worried that the close election result could prevent rapid and decisive action on problems. A majority does not want to see new elections immediately.

This is a path forward for the NDP and Eby, if they choose to follow it.

Rob Shaw has spent more than 16 years covering BC politics, now reporting for CHEK News and writing for Glacier Media. He is co-author of the national best-selling book A Matter of Confidence, host of the weekly Political Capital podcast and a regular guest on CBC Radio.

(email protected)