Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said it was “too early” to say whether Tropical Storm Rafael would hit the United States this weekend, as the weather system has yet to pass through the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later today. It circles Jamaica, then its path will take it near the Cayman Islands like a hurricane, through northwest Cuba on Wednesday afternoon, then into the Gulf of Mexico where it will target Louisiana. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the lower and middle Florida Islands by Wednesday evening as the storm passes. THE the biggest threats to the region there will be heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding.

“Steady to rapid intensification is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands, with additional strengthening before reaching Cuba,” the update said. NHC.

If the storm makes landfall in Louisiana, it will be a historic event, as a tropical storm or hurricane has never made landfall in the state during the month of November. However, several environmental factors impact the storm’s potential, including cooling ocean waters, strong wind shear, and Rafael’s slow progress.

Strong wind shear

NHC spokesperson Erica Grow Cei said News week that La Niña conditions are “starting to manifest in some of our mid-latitude weather patterns,” meaning wind shear is increasing, which also happens in November.

“As the storm runs into that wind shear, it becomes harder to stay stable and that really cuts off the potential for intensification,” Grow Cei said.

Wind shear could help dissolve the storm before it makes landfall in the United States.

Tropical Storm Rafael slows down

Initially, the NHC expected the storm to hit Louisiana by this weekend as a tropical storm, but new forecasts show the storm will slow down, Grow Cei said. The storm’s outer bands could reach U.S. landfall over the weekend, and Rafael may no longer be a tropical storm early next week, but it’s too early to tell, she said.

Cooling of ocean waters

Although Caribbean waters remain warm, ocean surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are beginning to cool, also posing a barrier to the storm.

“As the storm moves north, it encounters colder waters, which will decrease its intensity,” Grow Cei said.

While storms across the Gulf earlier this year quickly intensified, the waters are now too cold for that to happen.

Hurricane Center monitors a second system

Tropical Storm Rafael is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. It follows Tropical Storm Patty, which has now dissolved off the west coast of Portugal.

Meteorologists are also tracking another system in the southwest Atlantic, which has a 20% chance of forming over the next seven days. The official track of this potential storm has not yet been released.

“An area of ​​low pressure may develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a few days. Thereafter, slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week as it generally moves through westward over the southwest Atlantic,” he added. The recent NHC update talked about the new system.