SOUTH MISSISSIPPI – The WLOX First Alert Weather Team is tracking Tropical Storm Rafael in the Caribbean Sea. It is forecast to become a hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico this week.

Environmental conditions should be favorable enough for Rafael to become stronger in the Caribbean. It will likely strengthen into a hurricane by late Tuesday. Forecasts show it will be a hurricane that will pass through western Cuba and move toward the Gulf of Mexico around Wednesday afternoon or Thursday. If it attempts to move towards the northern Gulf, it risks becoming a tropical storm again.

WHAT WILL BE THE MANAGEMENT MODEL?

Rafael’s path will ultimately depend on the strength of a high pressure system over the southeastern United States and western Atlantic. A stronger high pressure area would keep Rafael further west. A weaker area of ​​high pressure would help steer Rafael toward the north or northeast of the Gulf.

WHAT FACTORS COULD WEAKEN OR STRENGTHEN RAFAEL?

What works in Rafael’s favor? Sea surface temperatures and low wind shear over the southern Gulf. What works against Rafael? Land interaction with Cuba this week, lack of deeply warm Gulf water, stronger wind shear near the northern Gulf.

WHAT CAN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EXPECT?

As Rafael enters the Gulf later this week, models will likely have a better idea of ​​the accuracy of Rafael’s future track.

At this time, our local forecast calls for slightly higher rain chances around Friday and Saturday, which could be associated with tropical weather. And our weather could be rather windy on those days, depending on how close Rafael is.

In the meantime, it’s a good idea to keep checking the forecast, as details will likely become clearer in the coming days.

This reminds us that hurricane season doesn’t officially end until November 30.

By the way, since 1850, only three hurricanes have made landfall in the United States during the month of November.

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