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What Donald Trump’s victory means for Sir Keir Starmer and the UK | Political news
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What Donald Trump’s victory means for Sir Keir Starmer and the UK | Political news

In June 2019, Sir Keir Starmer wrote about his two least favorite people in world politics: “A Donald Trump backer tells you all you need to know about what’s wrong with Boris’s politics Johnson and why he is not fit to be Prime Minister. minister.”

The same month, again, he railed: “Humanity and dignity. Two words not understood by President Trump“.

At the time, Theresa May was Prime Minister, Jeremy Corbyn led the Labor Party and Sir Keir was already discussing the possibility of seizing the crown if his party lost the election.

So, at the time, Sir Keir’s tweets were intended as a harmless gesture aimed at boosting his appeal to Labor supporters who might unite around a common political enemy. Needless to say, they were not expected to leave a lasting diplomatic legacy.

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Photos: Reuters
Picture:
Photos: Reuters

Sir Keir’s current Foreign Secretary was even less diplomatic. In 2017, David Lammy – who was away from the Corbyn era and free from the restrictions imposed by MPs – said Trump was promoting a ‘fascist, racist, extremist hate group’. Speaking directly to the then-president, he intoned: “You are not welcome in my country and my city.”

Unlike Sir Keir, Lammy had no higher purpose in posting his messages. In his book Tribes, Lammy admitted that in writing the post he chose the most provocative and direct language possible, knowing it would light up Twitter. It worked, and in the book he notes that the message was rebroadcast 58,000 times.

These two men must now hope that these outbursts will be long forgotten and that they will be able to work with one of the most capricious, unpredictable and vain politicians on the planet, who in recent hours has made a sensational return to the White House after four years in the desert. .

Repairing this breach has been one of Lammy’s main tasks since he was appointed Shadow Foreign Secretary in November 2021.

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When David Lammy met Donald Trump

Having spent his childhood summers in New York before attending Harvard Law School, Lammy is no stranger to American politics. He ran at least five times in opposition, favoring relations with the Republicans. Meanwhile, he saw the chances of Trump returning to the White House increasing.

His Republican roster now includes Robert O’Brien, the fourth and final national security adviser of the first Trump presidency, Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of state, and Elbridge Colby, who could move to the Defense Department or security under Trump’s presidency. return to power.

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Such has been Lammy’s success in winning over Colby, a China hawk who you would think would have a natural affinity with the Tories, that he recently gave a remarkable interview to the Telegraph which suggests real progress has been made.

“Right now, you probably haven’t seen American conservatives and English conservatives this far apart,” Colby told the newspaper. He then praised Labour’s approach to foreign affairs more generally.

“I was struck by the fact that Lammy made a real effort to reach out to conservatives and New Right supporters in the United States,” Colby said. “I like what I’m hearing from Lammy and (Defense Secretary John) Healey,” he said.

“Certainly in their approach to defense I hear a much more realistic estimation of ends, ways and means, which is a very positive development from Cameron’s approach which was wildly inconsistent and ended up by putting the onus on the Americans – Libya (2011 bombing campaign) being the ultimate example.”

As for Lammy’s past comments, they are excused. “A lot of people have said things in the past that they’ve moved on from,” Colby added.

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Lammy stands by Trump’s past comments

Lammy also thinks he has another, even bigger diplomatic prize that could be used to smooth relations: Trump’s pick for vice president, J.D. Vance.

Lammy first met Vance long before Trump was chosen as number two – ironically, they were both once critics of Trump – bonding over their respective books, growing up in tough places and being lawyers before becoming politicians.

The challenge will be to leverage that connection to create something more meaningful when the most unpredictable character returns to the White House in January.

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Who is JD Vance?

But the last two months have shown how unpredictable relationships can be.

The highlight was a two-hour dinner at Trump Tower in September with Trump, Starmer and Lammy (“We saw this – particularly the venue – as a gesture of friendship,” a British official said).

The lowest point was the publicity surrounding Labor’s campaign effort for Democrats, involving dozens of party figures trying to prevent Trump’s victory, an effort weaponized by the candidate himself with the Republican Party takes legal action. We don’t really know what memory Trump will keep in the White House.

However, global issues – and the impact of US domestic politics – could further deteriorate global relations.

Much thought has been given to how the UK and EU countries will respond to possible threats to NATO and Trump’s stance on Ukraine.

On Thursday, European leaders will gather for a meeting of the European Political Community to take stock of developments in the global situation.

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Key moments in the 2024 US election campaign

In Whitehall, they are clinging to the idea that Trump’s love of negotiations could mean he will pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine rather than simply walk away.

But Europe, including the UK, has started a conversation about what happens next with or without the US.

Where the UK feels less prepared is in the looming trade war, with Trump threatening to impose 10% tariffs on goods imported into the US. Talk to parts of the government and they seem almost nonchalant – pointing out that the vast majority of our trade relations with the United States are for services that could escape such a tax.

But this is seen as complacency by manufacturers – who point out that we export £70 billion worth of cars, pharmaceuticals and Scotch whiskey to the US – which is double our second largest market export, Germany.

They pleaded with ministers in the Ministry of Corporate Affairs to take the threat seriously. Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, recently authorized modeling to examine the impact of such tariffs.

Some Labor MPs believe a Trump victory would mean a major blow to GDP growth – a rebuke to those in government who took the prospect of US protectionism too lightly.

Economic and global turmoil never comes with a cost, but the Starmer government hopes it has done everything practically possible to provide a modicum of insulation.

They will soon know if it works.