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Forget soft landing: Economy could be ‘bigger but not hotter,’ says El-Erian
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Forget soft landing: Economy could be ‘bigger but not hotter,’ says El-Erian

Instead of a so-called “no landing” or “soft landing” for the economy, the chances of the economy growing without rising inflation have improved thanks to the victory of Trump, Mohamed El-Erian said on Wednesday.

In an interview on Bloomberg TV, El-Erian said the upside was that supply-side improvements and faster productivity could be driven.

“The probability, but not more, has increased from what it was yesterday,” El-Erian said.

The risk is that an increase in inflation will occur sooner than productivity gains.

In light of that outlook, the market pushing small caps higher along with higher bond yields and a stronger dollar was “very rational,” he said.

Markets show deregulation could lead to higher growth, but concerns remain about higher inflation. Markets are rethinking the conventional wisdom that the Fed should steadily lower interest rates over the next 13 months, he added.