Washington Donald TrumpTuesday’s victory is a tectonic global event that will reshape both the international political system and the international economic arrangement. Before looking at the implications of a Trump presidency in various specific areas, the fundamental question to internalize for all global capital, even after 2016, is that this is a new America.

This America is not going to pretend to play nice, indulge in liberal hypocrisies, or even deign to take an interest in issues that do not fundamentally affect its own core interests. Instead, this America will define its core interests in the context of homeland security, national economic self-reliance and job creation, technological and military superiority, and the protection of Christians.

This America will be more concentrated and less dispersed than post-Cold War America. This America will be happy to reach agreements with all actors, based on its interests, without the baggage of history or the obligations enshrined in past agreements. And this America does not care about multilateralism and does not want to pretend that there is a global good beyond the specific good of certain states.

More specifically, at the cost of being speculative, but based on current conversations within the Trump ecosystem, here is what this could mean for the following players:

UkraineVolodymyr Zelensky may have sent a warm message of congratulations to Donald Trump. But now he must make difficult choices. Trump is unlikely to expand U.S. support for Ukraine in terms of military and economic resources until he knows the final outcome. And the final outcome, for the Trump ecosystem, is a peace based on territorial concessions from Ukraine and security guarantees from Russia. Trump is likely to engage openly with Vladimir Putin on the issue and abandon the pretense that this is not a shadow war between the United States and Russia. He will probably tell Zelensky to make peace by abandoning the territories already under Russian control and to say goodbye to the prospects of NATO membership, and in return, Trump will probably get a promise from Putin that his territorial ambitions will end in the is Ukraine and will not extend beyond to Europe. In all of this, Trump is likely to read the riot act to Europe and tell the continent that if it wants to continue fighting Moscow, it is free to do so without the American cushion.

IsraelTrump’s long-term priority in West Asia will be to achieve the conclusion of the normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. He will take a strong hawkish stance against Iran. In the short term, he will likely support Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies and even remove the mild restrictions that Washington sought to impose on Israel to curb its aggression and allow Netanyahu to achieve his goals in Gaza and the West Bank. But in the medium term, and this timetable is difficult to define, Trump will have to tell Netanyahu to stop – because that is the only way for him to get this deal with the Saudis and create a new architecture in West Asia that suits in the United States. security and business.

ChinaTrump will be unpredictable towards China. He is likely to take a strongly antagonistic stance on trade and impose the tariffs he has promised. He will continue to denounce how China has stolen American manufacturing jobs and he will not be forgiven for it. Its ecosystem includes powerful China hawks who will make it their priority to maintain the technology denial restrictions put in place by the Biden administration, improve U.S. deterrence, and cement partnerships in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, for Trump, nothing is set in stone and the battle with China is not ideological. If Xi Jinping offers him a favorable economic deal, on an issue that is close to Trump’s heart or brings him political dividends at home, the next American president could well be content to turn a blind eye to China’s excesses in one area. which may not be a priority. for him.

EuropeTrump has a simple proposition for Europeans: take care of your own security. This may mean increasing their defense budgets, which they currently do, or relying less on the US security umbrella, or entering into their own bilateral agreements with the partner of their choice. But what Trump doesn’t want is to be told to spend more resources. Over the past nine years, Europeans have partially prepared for this, but not yet adequately. And this will inevitably lead to transcontinental tensions.

TradeThe issue that matters most to Trump and will fundamentally change the way the world does business is trade. The era of commercial multilateralism is well and truly over. Reciprocal rates will be in fashion. Domestic manufacturing will be a priority, and the era of relatively seamless global movement of goods and services is about to face challenges, even if technology and complex interdependencies make it difficult to stop.

Putting it all together, it is clear that in all theaters – from Europe to West and East Asia – and in all areas – from trade to technology to multilateralism – the world is about to suffer shocks. But it was this promise of disruption that got Donald Trump elected, and he will keep it, whatever the cost.