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Big Ten Bowl Projections and How the CFP’s Top Four Prospects Could Muddle the Playoff Picture
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Big Ten Bowl Projections and How the CFP’s Top Four Prospects Could Muddle the Playoff Picture

The College Football Playoff may be bigger than ever this year, but there will be nearly six times as many FBS teams playing in non-CFP bowl games as participants in the new 12-team bracket. Bowls will still air on television around the main event of the playoffs and garner big ratings. Fans will travel and players will party. The coaches will bathe in mayonnaise in Charlotte and spit country rap in Nashville.

The bowl system remains intact, even if it has undergone significant modifications. Over the next two years, the former Pac-12 teams scattered throughout the Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC (plus the league’s two remnants, Oregon State And Washington State) will continue to compete for spots within the Pac-12 bowl structure, not for spots tied to their current conferences’ bowl agreements. That means Big Ten teams U.S.C. And Washington will compete with Big 12 teams Arizona State, Utah And Colorado; ACC Cal; and Washington State and Oregon State for invitations to the Alamo, Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA and Independence bowls.

Are you still confused? Let’s untangle the uncertainty and look at the Big Ten playoffs, including the CFP, the league’s current bowls, and the outlook for former Pac-12 teams.

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College Football Playoffs

Details : Home campus, December 20 and 21; Peach, fiesta, rose and sugar bowls, Dec. 31-Jan. 1; OrangeCotton bowls, January 9 and 10; National Championship, January 20.

Opponents: One of the five highest-ranked conference champions or seven at-large teams, depending on ranking.

Breakdown: Oregon (n°1), Ohio State (n°2), State of Pennsylvania (No. 6) and Indiana (No. 8) were all ranked among the top eight in the initial CFP rankings. Under this draft seeding, the Ducks would receive a first-round bye and play in a national quarterfinal in the Rose Bowl. As the non-conference champion, Ohio State would have the fifth overall seed and host the 12th seed. Boise State. Penn State would win seventh place and host tenth place Notre Dame. Indiana would move up to the ninth seed and go to the eighth seed Tennessee.

If these teams keep their serve for the rest of the season – putting aside the Ohio State-Indiana result on November 23 – their positions won’t change much. But if Indiana or Penn State suffer a second loss, there’s a chance they could be out of the CFP.

Projection at the beginning of November: Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and Penn State all qualify for the playoffs.

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Citrus bowl

Details : Orlando, Florida, December 31, 3 p.m. ET (ABC)

Opponent: The first SEC team after the College Football Playoff selections. Potential candidates include Texas, GeorgiaTexas A&M, Alabama, Missouri And Ole Mademoiselle. Tennessee played in the Citrus Bowl last year, and LSU I was there two years ago.

Breakdown: If Ohio State, Penn State, or Indiana State were to drop the CFP, that would automatically be a landing spot. None of the three have played in Orlando in the current cycle. The last time Penn State received an invitation to the Citrus Bowl was in 2018; it was 1995 for Ohio State. Indiana hasn’t played there yet.

If the league’s top four reach the CFP, the next available Big Ten teams are Iowa, Minnesota And Illinoisall of whom are 6-3 overall and 4-2 in league play. The Gophers beat the Fighting Illini and lost to the Hawkeyes, while Illinois and Iowa are not playing. Iowa has appeared in two of the last three Citrus Bowls, so the Hawkeyes are unlikely to return unless they finish two games above the next available team. Although Minnesota beat Illinois last week, none of the Illini’s upcoming opponents have a winning record. The Gophers, meanwhile, will host Penn State on November 23. Neither has played in the Citrus Bowl recently (Minnesota 2014; Illinois 1989).

Projection at the beginning of November: Illinois

ReliaQuest Bowl

Details : Tampa, Florida, December 31, noon ET (ESPN)

Opponent: A pool of SEC teams ranging from second to seventh in the league pecking order outside of the CFP. Potential candidates include Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee and Ole Miss. LSU was there last year.

Breakdown: If one of the top four teams were to bow out of the College Football Playoff and end up in Orlando, a similar scenario to the one described above with the Citrus Bowl would play out with Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota. This time, the Hawkeyes would be the big favorites to go to Tampa. Iowa has played in the bowl formerly known as the Outback six times under Kirk Ferentz, but not since 2018. There’s a chance Ferentz also breaks the Big Ten coaching wins record on that day . Illinois was in Tampa two years ago and Minnesota last played in the game in 2019.

Projection at the beginning of November: Iowa

DukeThe bowl of mayo

Details : Charlotte, North Carolina, January 3, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Opponent: A pool of teams from the second tier of the ACC ranging from fourth to sixth non-CFP. Potential candidates include Duke, Louisville, Georgia Tech And Virginia Tech.

Breakdown: This could become interesting depending on the evolution of the CFP. If three Big Ten teams enter the CFP, the fourth goes to the Citrus and Iowa ends up in Tampa, then that spot goes to Illinois, Minnesota and maybe Michigan and Nebraska. If the bottom two are a game away from the top two, then they are all fair game. Illinois, Minnesota and Michigan are 1-1 against each other, and the Illini beat the Huskers. Nebraska‘s first bowl game since 2016 would mean a ton of potential traveling fans, and Michigan is a major TV draw. But it’s hard to project the Wolverines or Cornhuskers above 6-6 at the moment.

Projection at the beginning of November: Minnesota

Musical City Bowl

Details : Nashville, Tennessee, December 30, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Opponent: A pool of SEC teams ranging from second to seventh outside the CFP. Potential candidates include Missouri, LSU, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and South Carolina.

Breakdown: It’s possible that Illinois or Minnesota could end up in that spot, which would earn an automatic selection if either finishes two games above the remaining bowl-eligible teams in the Big Ten. Otherwise, the Music City Bowl should love its picks between Nebraska, Wisconsin and Michigan. The Huskers would bring crowds of fans; Michigan would draw viewers but a much less motivated fan base. Wisconsin hasn’t appeared in Nashville yet, and the bowl has always wanted it. For a mid-afternoon game on a Monday, the most full stadium possible would win.

Projection at the beginning of November: Nebraska

Pinstripe bowl

Details : Bronx, NY, December 28, noon ET (ABC)

Opponent: A pool of teams from the second tier of the ACC ranging from fourth to sixth non-CFP. Potential candidates include Duke, Louisville, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, NC State And Boston College.

Breakdown: Neither Michigan nor Nebraska played in the Bronx. If both teams were an option, Michigan would probably be the choice. There are tons of Michigan grads in the New York tri-state area, and it’s not clear the Wolverines will return to that location for a while. Wisconsin and Michigan State could also feature in this bowl game, although both have played at Yankee Stadium for the past six years.

Projection at the beginning of November: Michigan

Rate the bowl

Details : Phoenix, Arizona, December 26, 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Opponent: Big 12 team No. 5 after the CFP. Possible candidates include TCU, Baylor, Cincinnati, Texas Technology And West Virginia.

Breakdown: If all goes well, that bowl could have its pick in Wisconsin, Michigan State.Rutgers winner or possibly Maryland. In this case, the Badgers played in Phoenix two years ago, and the Spartans haven’t appeared in this game since 2012. But many Wisconsin snowbirds flock to Arizona to avoid winter.

Projection at the beginning of November: Michigan State

GameAbove Sports Bowl

Details : Detroit, December 26, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Opponent: MAC

Breakdown: The Big Ten often lacks bowl teams. Last year was the first time since 2018 that a team from the Big Ten (Minnesota) participated, and the 5-7 Gophers only qualified because there weren’t enough teams eligible for bowl games. It’s possible that Michigan State and Wisconsin (or Rutgers and Maryland) end up in this spot, but based on the scenario above, this is where the Badgers land.

Projection at the beginning of November: Wisconsin

Former Pac-12 possibilities

Barring an unprecedented collapse, Oregon will remain in the postseason, either as Big Ten champion or at-large member. UCLA (3-5) is currently one win away from making a bowl projection, but the Bruins are much improved from September. A Bruins win against Iowa or Washington could set up a showdown with USC for a bowl invitation.

As for Washington (5-4) and USC (4-5), the Alamo (Pac-12 vs. Big 12) and Vegas (Pac-12 vs. SEC) bowls seem an unlikely destination with No. 20 Colorado (6-2 ) and No. 21 Washington State (7-1) also vying for those spots. Pac-12 legacy bowls can now make selections regardless of record, but Washington State, for example, could finish 11-1 with a win over Washington.

If Washington and USC become bowl eligible, they would be available to Holiday (vs. ACC), Sun (vs. ACC), LA (vs. Mountain West), and Independence (vs. Army) bowls, although the Trojan horses played at the Holiday Bowl last year. Other current and former Pac-12 teams vying for these spots include Arizona State (6-2), Oregon State (4-4), California (4-4) and Utah (4-4).

Projection at the beginning of November: Washington (Sun), USC (LA)

(Photo: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)