SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Models are better aligned on Rafael’s track with this update. The storm is expected to meander through Gulf waters as it weakens. With this update, the Hurrican Center forecasts a loop in the track that will take it north early next week, then south when it finally dissipates into the waters of the southwest Gulf.

Rafael is moving westward, into a dry air mass and wind environment hostile to hurricanes. Rafael’s eye wall begins to fill with clouds and is less pronounced. So, after regaining its category 3 status yesterday, it is expected to weaken into a tropical storm over the weekend. As dry air is drawn into the storm’s circulation, it is expected to continue to weaken to a depression, or even dissipate entirely before reaching any landfall. The only remaining area of ​​interest in the Atlantic basin is just north of Cuba, on a path that takes it toward the Bahamas island chain. This disturbance has a 20% chance of developing according to the National Hurricane Center. This could bring some additional moisture to the Suncoast early next week in the form of isolated or scattered showers.

As Rafael moves away from the Suncoast, drier air will enter. This will set the stage for several sunny and slightly wetter days for us. As high temperatures hover in the mid-80s and remain several degrees above normal for this time of year, our dew points will drop a few degrees and afternoons will be more comfortable.

The wind will remain breezy, particularly on Saturday. But not to the point of being dangerous. The continuing danger will come from the propagation of waves and swells from Rafael to our coastline. This will continue to pose a rip current risk into the evening. Swim only on beaches protected by lifeguards.

Mostly sunny skies are expected to continue through the start of the next work week. By Monday or Tuesday, some more tropical moisture could return and bring a few more clouds. This may also lead to a few showers in the afternoon.

Drier air will return again midweek next week. Temperatures will remain high through the end of the next work week, running a few degrees above average.

Later next week, just before the next weekend, 10 days from now, models suggest a stronger cold front. This can bring a real taste of fall. Some models suggest highs in the 70s and nights in the upper 50s.

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