After a year of ever more extreme weather and ever-rising global temperatures, it’s no wonder that this year’s UN climate summit has been called – once again – the “world’s fair”. last chance.”

Yet the president-elect struts through his swinging doors Donald Trump.

The moment of his electoral victory, with his promise to withdraw the WE of the global climate process, it couldn’t be worse.

Next year, warming is predicted to exceed 1.5 degrees for the first time – which Paris Agreement is designed to avoid becoming the norm.

Despite this and nearly 30 years of negotiations, human-caused greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase.

Yet only a handful of countries have committed to reducing them enough to avoid warming of nearly three degrees by the end of the century.

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So, does America’s sudden departure, at this most precarious of times, spell disaster?

Under previous administrations, the United States was a major diplomatic force in negotiations, brokering significant concessions from more recalcitrant states, including the world’s largest polluter, China.

He also set ambitions, adopting carbon reduction commitments and domestic policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which sent a powerful message to others: If the United States saw a future in -beyond fossil fuels, everyone could.

As the largest shareholder of the World Bank, the United States is also seen as a key player in negotiating a new agreement to finance the green transition in poorer countries: the main objective of the World Bank . COP29 talks in Azerbaijan.

Today, even though his negotiating team en route to Baku still serves President Joe Bidenthe country’s agenda, it has lost its diplomatic influence. In less than three months, they will all be unemployed.

Will the departure of the United States encourage other leaders – threatened by increasingly right-wing electorates in their countries – to scale back their ambitions?

Or even follow his lead and abandon the “woke” jamboree of school-shy teenagers, indigenous groups and NGOs that some have long perceived to be the UN climate negotiations?

Unlikely – at least according to Jonathan Pershing, former president Barack Obamaof the time, sent for the climate.

Mr. Trump tried to reverse U.S. climate policy during his last takeover of the White House, but it was unsuccessful, Mr. Pershing says.

“Even in shock, no other country followed the United States in withdrawing from the Paris Agreement,” he says. “I don’t think anyone will this time either.”

His optimism comes from the fact that the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement can ignore climate realities, but not economic realities.

Despite the campaign slogan “Trump digs coal,” for example, under Mr. Trump’s last administration, more coal-fired power plants closed than under Mr. Obama’s climate-friendly administration.

Alternatives to fossil fuels, such as wind and solar power, are growing in popularity and falling in price, a trend that is expected to continue.

This is even more true among America’s competitors like China, which, according to Mr. Pershing, last year saw 40% of its GDP come from the shift to clean technologies.

“The idea that they would give up on that growth just because the United States withdrew seems not only implausible but highly, highly improbable,” he said.

Perhaps this is the analysis of COP insiders. However, international agreements have long lagged behind the urgency of the climate crisis.

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The talks which will begin in Baku were supposed to accelerate action.

Instead, negotiators will arrive knowing that 72 million Americans voted for Mr. Trump. It’s unlikely that his denial of climate change was a major factor in their decision – but it wasn’t enough to deter them either.

His administration’s plans may prove to be just another obstacle on the road to an inevitable zero-carbon future.

But any climate scientist will tell you that even the slightest delay in this journey is disastrous – and more than half of America has just signaled that it has no interest in going any faster.