It’s not often that Indiana fans focus on football in November, but they will be rocking this afternoon when the Hoosiers host the Michigan Wolverines.

The Hoosiers are ranked ninth in the College Football Playoff rankings, and Curt Cignetti knows a win against Michigan would make a statement. The Wolverines hope they’ve found an answer at quarterback, but the defending champions haven’t fared well on the road this season.

I break down the Big Ten matchup and explain why the Hoosiers will send a message in my Michigan vs. Indiana predictions and college football picks for November 9.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET from Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, with the game broadcast on CBS.

Michigan vs Indiana Prediction and Best Bet

My best bet
Indiana -14.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

For all the criticism Iowa has received over the years about being one-dimensional on offense, this year’s version of Michigan Wolverines it could be worse. The Wolverines have shown glimpses, like Davis Warren’s 165-yard performance last week, but there have been no signs of consistency, especially in their two road games.

That said, it may take a four-dimensional offense to beat this situation. Indiana Hoosiers team. Defensively, the Hoosiers rank 18th in EPA/drop back and 10th in EPA/rush. The Hoosiers also limit teams to a passing success rate of just 35 percent, the 19th lowest mark in college football.

Michigan State gave up 36 yards rushing against Indiana – yeah, you read that right. Sure, sacks played a big role in that, but even based on what the Spartan running backs did, they only gained 16 yards on 14 carries.

While Michigan likes to run the ball, it ranks middle of the pack in EPA/rush and averages just 2.8 yards per carry. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, Indiana’s defensive line lives in opposing backfields, as if trying to capitalize on squatters’ rights. The Hoosiers lead the Big 10 in sacks with 3.50 per conference game, and their 45 tackles for loss also pace all teams in conference.

On the other side of the ball, there are few weaknesses for a suspect Michigan defense to exploit. A Wolverine defense ranked 94th in EPA/rush and 117th in third down will struggle against a Hoosier offense ranked in the Top 10 nationally in EPA/pass, EPA start and third down.

These two teams both played Washington and Michigan State. While Michigan lost at Washington and barely beat the Spartans, the Hoosiers wore down the Huskies in a two-touchdown victory and hit the road last weekend and — albeit after a slow start — manhandled Sparty as they scored 47 unanswered points.

This Indiana team rarely turns the ball over and the Wolverines rank in the 100s in turnovers per game. Once Michigan falls behind by double digits — and it will — the Hoosiers will force turnovers and pull away as they submit the Wolverines.

The Hoosiers have won all eight of their games by at least two touchdowns, and I like them to win by at least 17 here, so I’ll be happy to put up the points.

Parlay Michigan vs Indiana in the same game (SGP)

Indiana -16.5

Michigan 1H Team Total Under 9.5

Kurtis Rourke over 250 passing yards

The Hoosiers are going to want to make a statement to the College Football Playoff committee and silence attacks on their strength of schedule, and I’m building my same-game speech around that intention.

In six Big 10 games, the Hoosiers have allowed just 16 visits to the red zone, with teams scoring touchdowns on just nine of those trips. In the same number of games, Michigan has thrown just eight touchdowns on 15 trips inside the 20-yard line. The Wolverines won’t get into that zone very often in the first half, and I expect the limited chances they get will result in field goals at best.

I’m going to take the Hoosiers not only to cover the spread, but to win by at least 17 behind the arm of Kurtis Rourke. Concerns about his thumb were quickly put to rest as he threw for 263 yards and four touchdowns against Michigan State last week.

I expect him to surpass the 250 yard mark once again. It’s a number he’s erased in five of his last six games, and he’ll find success against a Michigan defense that has struggled to pressure the quarterback and force turnovers.

The Wolverines have already given up more than 250 passing yards to Oregon, Washington, Minnesota and Southern Cal in Big 10 play, and the Hoosiers will join that list when this one is over.

Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Michigan vs. Indiana Odds

Michigan vs. Indiana live odds

Michigan vs. Indiana Opening Odds

• Spread Michigan vs. Indiana: Indiana -12.5
• Michigan moneyline vs. Indiana: Michigan +450, Indiana -650
• Michigan vs. Indiana Plus/Minus: 49.5

Chances courtesy of PariMGM

Michigan vs. Indiana Spread and Over/Under Analysis

• The betting public flocked to the Hoosiers early, pushing the lineup up two points from the initial -12.5 line opened last Sunday.
• Since failing to cover in the opener against FIU, the Hoosiers have covered in eight straight games. Michigan is 0-2 ATS on the road and just 2-7 on the season.
• The total stands at 49.5, opening point, and that’s the highest number for a Michigan game all season. The Wolverines have seen the Over go 5-1 in their last six games, but they have only scored more than 17 points once in four games.
• The Hoosiers have been an Over machine, with seven in their last eight games, that total being the third lowest of the year.

Michigan vs Indiana betting trend to know

Indiana has put more than 40 points on the board in seven of its last eight games. Find more college football betting trends for Michigan against Indiana.

Michigan vs. Indiana Game Information

Michigan’s latest injuries vs. Indiana

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