Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 10 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams. Let’s examine where the smart money leans using our VSiN NFL Betting Breakdownswhich come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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The Dolphins (2-6) have lost three straight games and just fell to the Bills 30-27, but managed to cover with 6.5 road dog points. On the other hand, the Rams (4-4) have won three straight and just defeated the Seahawks 26-20 in overtime, establishing themselves as 2-point road favorites.

The first opening match of this match was Los Angeles -1 at home. Based on both teams’ performances last week, we immediately saw the line jump up to Rams -2.5. The public thinks this line is still far too short and rushes to the window to score points with the Rams. However, despite receiving 75% of spread bets, we saw Los Angeles remain relatively stagnant at -2.5. In fact, that line briefly went down to Rams -1 before rising back up to Rams -2.5. We have yet to see Los Angeles reach the key number of -3, which is notable because the Rams are a very popular play. Reading between the lines, it appears we’re seeing an abrupt freeze of the line on the Dolphins, with the books reluctant to raise the line any higher for fear of giving Miami’s contrarian fans a better number.

The Dolphins offer notable “betting against the crowd” value, as they receive only 25% of the spread bets in a heavily-staked primetime game. The Dolphins have classic buy value as a dog on a 3-game losing streak versus a high sell favorite on a 3-game winning streak. The Road Dogs are 48-41 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI this season. The primetime road dogs are 99-78 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2019. Ron Torbert, the head referee, historically has 57% ATS for the road team. Those looking to go against the grain and return to Miami would be wise to wait for a +3, as the market is pricing the Rams -2.5 (-115). Miami is also a prime candidate for a Wong Teaser. By moving the Dolphins from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy bettors are able to go through the major key numbers of 3 and 7. One important injury to watch is WR Tyreek Hill, who is a game decision in due to a wrist injury.

Cash also fell below, bringing the total down from 50 to 48.5. This downward movement is all the more notable as the public plays over (59% of bets), while the total has fallen. This is evidence of a wise man under the movement of the inverted line. When the total is 48 or more, under 17-13 (57%) with an 8% return on investment this season. Primetime games with a total of 47 or more are 26-15 (63%) below with a 22% ROI since 2022.

Gamer Accessory to Consider

Demarcus Robinson Over 28.5 receiving yards (-110): Robinson has exceeded this number in 6 of 8 games this season. He had 6 catches for 94 yards last week against the Seahawks, ranking second on the team in targets with 9. He is second on the team in receiving yards (327), behind Tutu Atwell (366). . Robinson is third on the team in targets this season (38), behind Atwell (39) and Cooper Kupp (49). With Miami’s top cornerback, Jalen Ramsey, expected to follow Kupp or Puka Nacua, that means Robinson could benefit from favorable matchups against lesser Dolphins defenders. We’re also looking at a high total game in a dome, which bodes well for offensive production.