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    • Ole Miss is the fifth team in the SEC, Indiana is scrambling
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    Ole Miss is the fifth team in the SEC, Indiana is scrambling

    Pabio Posted on

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    • If Ole Miss follows Georgia’s win with a strong finish, it could move up the CFP standings to advance to the first round.
    • What happens if last place comes down to a two-loss SEC team or a one-loss Big Ten team? Watch out, Indiana.
    • The path for BYU and Miami becomes clear: win your conference.

    LSU College Football Playoff bubble burst Saturday eveningbut that hardly cleared the playoff picture.

    If anything, the CFP tranche became cloudier after Miami lost its undefeated status And Ole Miss upsets Georgia.

    For several weeks, I crowned the SEC four playoff qualifiers. No more. My final projection returns to my preseason stance that the SEC will qualify five for the playoffs.

    Before Tuesday’s rankings update, here is my final prediction for the CFP bracket. The top four seeds would receive a first-round bye, while teams seeded Nos. 5 through 8 would host first-round playoff games.

    1. Oregon (Big Ten)

    Dillon Gabriel maintained his spot atop the Heisman Trophy standings by throwing three touchdown passes in Oregon’s 39-18 victory over Maryland. My concern about the Ducks: They haven’t played a road game against a team currently sitting above .500. What happens when Oregon has to leave the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium in the playoffs? Last week: Seed #1.

    2.Alabama (SEC)

    As a logjam in the SEC standings forms, complex tiebreaker protocols may be required to determine one or both teams for the conference championship game. So I can’t say with certainty that Alabama will reach Atlanta. Struggling with two conference defeats, the Crimson Tide need help to get there. If they can do that, I like their chances of retaining the SEC crown. Quarterback Jalen Milroe got his juice back and Alabama showed no signs of its October woes while demolishing LSU. Last week: Not in the playoffs.

    A RELIEVER OF THE TIDE: Kalen DeBoer and Jalen Milroe resurrect Alabama football season

    3. Brigham Young (Big 12)

    BYU spent most of its rivalry game against Utah justifying the Cougars’ lukewarm initial ranking by the CFP committee. But BYU just won’t go away. The Cougars used a late basket to escape with a 22-21 victory, their fourth victory by six points or fewer. The committee’s reluctance toward the Cougars makes their task clear: win the Big 12, or expect to be voted out. Last week: Seed #4.

    4.Miami (ACC)

    Georgia Tech, in a 28-23 win over the Hurricanes, showed the playbook for beating the Hurricanes: use a ball-control offense to keep Miami’s vaunted offense on the sidelines. Georgia Tech’s pass rush destabilized Cam Ward, Miami’s star quarterback. Now, the Hurricanes may have to win the ACC to qualify, but here’s the thing: Ward is so good that he’ll play close games for Miami more often than not. Last week: Seed #3.

    WHAT HAPPENED? Brian Kelly asks the question we’re all asking after LSU exits the playoff picture

    5. Ohio State (overall)

    If the Buckeyes keep winning — undefeated Indiana comes to town in two weeks — and get to 11-1, they’ll get a runner-up finish in Oregon. Beat the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship and Ohio State could move up to the No. 1 seed. Lose, and the committee shouldn’t punish OSU too much, if at all. Georgia suffering a second loss increased OSU’s chances of earning the coveted No. 5 seed. Last week: Seed #5.

    6. Penn State (overall)

    The Nittany Lions won’t have a signature win, but they boast a strong schedule, and an 11-1 record would help create separation from a stack of two-loss SEC teams. Additionally, the committee appears willing to award points for a “good loss.” Penn State’s seven-point loss to Ohio State presents limited harm and, in fact, polishes the resume. Last week: Seed #6.

    7. Notre-Dame (in general)

    While other playoff contenders absorb body blows in conference play, the Irish enjoy the fruits of their independence. The army that remains undefeated also helps Notre Dame. The Irish gain momentum and the overthrow of Black Knights would encourage the committee to solidify Notre Dame as the first-round host. Last week: Seed #8.

    8. Mississippi (in general)

    Ole MademoiselleMajor investments in defensive transfers have paid off. The Rebels controlled the lines of scrimmage, crushed Georgia and reignited their quest for the playoffs. While other SEC contenders face additional losses, Florida and Mississippi State await Ole Miss. Resounding victories and a hot final play well for the committee. Last week: Not in the playoffs.

    9. Georgia (in general)

    The committee might prefer to avoid scheduling rematches of regular season games, but if the SEC hoards offers, as I have explained, then the committee would likely have no choice but to schedule at least one revenge. Georgia will host Tennessee on Saturday in a game the Bulldogs cannot afford to lose. You can see from this ranking that I expect Georgia to bounce back and defend its home court. Last week: Seed #2.

    10. Texas (in general)

    Georgia’s loss damaged Texas’ ranking potential. If the Bulldogs had continued to win, the Longhorns could have explained their failure against Georgia in Austin. Now that Georgia looks more ordinary than invincible, Texas risks losing its ranking and perhaps even falling out of the pack altogether, if it suffers a second loss. Last week: Seed #6.

    11. Tennessee (in general)

    If the Vols lose to Georgia and the Hoosiers subsequently lose to Ohio State, the committee could be forced to choose between two losses at Tennessee and one loss at Indiana for the final at-large bid. Cornered, would the committee really ignore Tennessee’s significantly superior schedule to Indiana’s and its victory over Alabama? Historically, the committee doesn’t like any conference as much as it likes the SEC. Last week: Seed #10.

    12. Boise State (Group of Five)

    Did you think Ashton Jeanty was going to burn out? Never! The Boise State workhorse produced 209 yards and three touchdowns in a win over Nevada. Army keeps the pressure on Boise State for the Group of Five bid, but Boise will get the spot as long as it keeps winning. Last week: Seed #12.

    Why my latest projection doesn’t include Indiana

    Ole Miss beating Georgia attracts teams with credentials for general consideration. Indiana look at the role of the playoff team, but its modest strength of schedule leaves it vulnerable.

    Tennessee doesn’t have a long list of signature wins, but beating Alabama remains a feather in the Vols’ cap that Indiana can’t match unless it upsets Ohio State in Columbus.

    Previously, I thought Indiana would remain positioned for a bid even if they lost to Ohio State. But, if the committee has to choose between a two-loss SEC team touting a win over Alabama or a one-loss Big Ten team touting a win over .500 Michigan, I suspect the SEC team will raid the spot.

    Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Send him an email to [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @btopppmeyer. Subscribe to read all his columns.

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