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    • Bills vs. Chiefs Predictions, Week 11 Game Odds: What the Experts Say
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    Bills vs. Chiefs Predictions, Week 11 Game Odds: What the Experts Say

    Pabio Posted on

    Since the 2024 NFL schedule came out in mid-May, you can bet that Josh Allen, Sean McDermott and the rest of the Buffalo Bills toured this Sunday’s match against the Kansas City Chiefs.

    For years now, Patrick Mahomes and the Super Bowl champion Chiefs have been the bar of excellence by which other teams measure themselves. Hell, the Kansas City tight end is even dating the greatest musician of our time.

    This week, Allen and the Invoices have a chance of taking them down, and NFL experts were leaning heavily in favor of the Bills from the start. But as we get closer to the match, doubts begin to set in.

    The 8-2 Bills are 2.5-point favorites over the undefeated Chiefs, according to PariMGM. The money line is Bills -135 (bet $135 to win $100) and Dolphins +115 (bet $100 to win $115). The over-under is 46 points.

    Here’s what our weekly expert roundup found:

    John Breech writes: “This is by far the biggest game of Week 11 and I’m not just saying that because it’s on CBS. If you have plans for Sunday, cancel them. If you don’t have no plans, so make some, just so you can cancel them.

    “Actually, I take that back, you can do whatever you want on Sunday, just make sure you’re in front of a TV at 4:25 p.m. ET when this game kicks off. If you don’t own a TV, then you can stream the game on Paramount+. If you don’t have internet, I don’t know how you are reading this, but you can go to a bar to watch. If you don’t live near a bar, you can sit in your car and listen to the game on the radio.”

    If this game ends up being like every other Chiefs game this season, that means it will be an instant classic that will be played to the bitter end. The Chiefs have won nine games and seven of them have been decided by one score and five of those seven have been so dramatic that they should probably all have their own “30 for 30” documentary at some point.

    Here are Kansas City’s wildest wins so far:

    Week 1: The Chiefs beat the Ravens 27-20 after Isaiah Likely the toe is thrown out of bounds in the end zone on the final play of the game. Week 2: The leaders beat Bengals 26-25 after Harrison Butker made a 51-yard field goal on the last play of the game.Week 3: The Chiefs beat the Falcons 22-17 after Atlanta failed on a fourth-and-1 at the Kansas City 13-yard line with less than a minute to play. Week 9: The leaders beat Buccaneers 30-24 after Kareem Hunt scores a TD in overtime. Week 10: The Chiefs beat the Broncos 16-14 after Leo Chenal blocks a 35-yard field goal on the final play of the game.

    At this point my only theory is that God is bet big money on the Chiefs every week. Just kidding, we all know God doesn’t bet on football.

    Even though the Bills can’t seem to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, that hasn’t been the case in the regular season. This will mark the fourth straight year the Bills have had to play a regular season game against the Chiefs and they won in 2021, they won in 2022, they won in 2023 and I have a feeling they’re going to win too in 2024. .

    The only reason I like the Bills here is because Josh Allen is always at his best when he plays at home and he is even better when he faces the Chiefs. A big reason why the Bills are 3-0 in their last three regular season games against Kansas City is because Allen always seems to play like Superman when he faces the Chiefs. In those three wins, he averaged 292.3 passing yards per game and threw nine touchdown passes, compared to just one interception. On the other hand, Mahomes has six interceptions in those same three regular season games. The Chiefs quarterback always seems to fail against the Bills in the regular season and I’m starting to think he’s doing it on purpose: he loses the regular season game in order to be highly motivated to beat the Bills in the playoffs.

    Mahomes is 3-0 in his last three playoff games against the Bills, but 0-3 in his last three regular season games, and last time I checked, that’s not a playoff game. The 1972 Dolphins will be able to drink their champagne on Sunday because the Chiefs are down.

    Vinnie Iyer writes: “The Chiefs defense will take another breather here with Josh Allen’s key receivers injured, which will ease the load after containing the Bills’ running game. Kansas City did what was necessary to win each game through offense, defense, and special teams. The team with the cleanest play and pressure to reduce turnovers will win, and the Chiefs will make it clear that they remain the AFC team to beat.

    Iain MacMillan writes: “I’m done trying big-brain plays involving the Chiefs. I was the guy who bet against the Chiefs time and time again in big games. Citing metrics, advanced analytics and other variables, I’m convinced the Chiefs aren’t as good as their opponent. Afterwards, almost every time I regret having finished making that mistake.

    “I don’t know if it’s voodoo or some sort of clutch gene that only belongs to Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, but a 12-1-1 career record as an underdog speaks to himself. I’ll take the points with the Chiefs in the final edition of a Josh Allen vs. Mahomes matchup.

    Take: Leaders +2.5 (-110)

    Sal Maiorana writes: “This is a very tricky choice without knowing the health status of the Bills. Coleman is almost certainly out, and given that Kincaid was unable to finish the Colts game with a knee injury, this is not a good sign for him. Cooper might be the only target Allen gets back.

    “However, the Bills are playing at home where they are 4-0 this year, and they clearly have a mountain of motivation against the Chiefs, plus the dangling carrot of being the team that can end the Kansas City’s unbeaten streak. not the playoffs where the Bills are 0-3 against Patrick Mahomes and company since 2020, it’s the regular season and the Bills have won the last three meetings and I think that they will do just enough to create a surprise.

    Jordan Mendoza writes: “Kansas City used all kinds of magic to get to 9-0. It all stops this week. Josh Allen played well against the Chiefs – in the regular season – and the Bills are fighting to be the best team in the AFC by finishing the perfect season in Kansas City.

    Jeremy Cluff writes: “Kansas City brings a perfect 9-0 record into this game (and has won 15 in a row dating back to last season), but the Bills have won five in a row and are a perfect 4-0 in the Highmark Stadium. Josh Allen and Buffalo will win a thriller against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

    ESPN’s analytics give the Bills a 53.1% chance of beating the Chiefs.

    The website originally gave the Bills a 61% chance of winning by a score of 24-21. By Wednesday afternoon, the predicted score had tightened with the Bills’ chance of winning falling to 55%.

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

    Bill Wolcott is a producer who helps cover the Buffalo Billshigh school and Rochester sports in general. This lifelong New Yorker has been a journalist for 30 years.

    Pabio
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