California has a long – very long – list of critical economic, social and political problems that will most likely remain unresolved when Gavin Newsom leaves office in 26 months.

The highest levels of poverty And homelessshortages and rising housing costsexploding energy billsA uncertain water supply, street crimechronic educational gapsA high speed train project it seems to lead nowhere, and multibillion-dollar budget deficits are just the most obvious trouble spots.

Most were evident when Newsom was elected governor in 2018, promising vigorous efforts to neutralize them, such as his ridicule commitment to build 3.5 million homesbut most became even more intractable during his reign.

Given this unfortunate history, why would anyone in their right mind volunteer to step into Newsom’s shoes? The fact that quite a few Californians The candidates weighing in on the 2026 gubernatorial bids attest to the fundamentally irrational nature of political ambition.

The next political cycle begins without clear favorites, which is a bit unusual. Instead, we have at least a dozen potential candidates, none of whom can claim more than fractional support, plus a huge unknown: Vice President Kamala Harris’ career plans after losing his presidential bid.

A new poll from the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley confirms the absence of a favorite and, just for fun, tests the possibility of a return of Harris to the post of governor, in the style of that of Richard Nixon. vain attempt to become governor in 1962. While nearly half of voters surveyed said they would consider supporting Harris for governor, it could be as polarizing as her White House campaign.

“Considerations for Harris as a potential candidate for governor are highly partisan,” the poll found, “with 72 percent of Democrats saying they would be very or somewhat likely to consider supporting her, while 87 percent of Republicans wouldn’t do it. Among voters unaffiliated with either major party, 24% would be very likely and 13% somewhat likely to support a Harris 2026 bid for governor.

In ruling out Harris’ candidacy, the poll finds another recently defeated Democrat, U.S. Rep. Katie Portertops the pack, with 13% of voters ranking it as first or second choice, followed closely by Chad Biancothe Republican sheriff of Riverside County, at 12 percent.

Porter gave up his Orange County congressional seat this year to run for U.S. Senate, but lost in the primary to another congressman, Adam Schiffwho claimed a Senate seat last week.

Among Democratic voters, Porter gets 22 percent support, more than double what his most likely Democratic rivals get. Lieutenant Governor Eléni Kounalakisformer mayor of Los Angeles Antonio Villaraigosa and the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerrathe former state attorney general, all are between 10 and 11 percent.

Among the Republican voters participating in the survey were Bianco and state Sen. Brian Dahlé are virtually tied at about a third each.

A Republican’s chances of becoming governor are almost zero, given the overwhelming majority of Democratic voters, but the state’s top-two primary system makes Republican candidates more relevant against a large field of Democrats.

That the tactical element was very evident earlier this year, when Porter faced Schiff and a third Democrat, Rep. Barbara Lee. Schiff spent big money helping Republican Steve Garvey finish in second place in the primary, securing a victory in November.

Counting Porter, five reasonably viable Democrats could run next year – not only Kounalakis, Villaraigosa and Becerra, but also Attorney General Rob Bonta. A five-way split of Democratic voters would make it easier for a Republican to finish second in the primary, as Garvey did, and would indirectly help the leading Democrat become governor.

Let the games begin.