As winter approaches, Wisconsin farmers are bracing for an unpredictable weather season, following a warmer-than-usual winter last year. Wisconsin State Climatologist Steve Vavrus shares key information on the winter outlook.

“We are not expecting the extreme heat of last winter,” says Vavrus. “In fact, the NOAA National Weather Service predicts an equal chance of a warm, cold, or near-normal winter. This doesn’t give us much to work with.

However, Vavrus notes that the Great Lakes region, including Wisconsin, could see a wetter winter than normal. “The eastern half of Wisconsin, in particular, will likely see above-average precipitation,” he said. This could mean more snow, rain, or a combination of both, depending on how temperatures develop.

The timing of this rainfall could be crucial for farmers. “If the ground freezes early, rain or snow will run off. But if frost is delayed, moisture can seep into the soil, which is beneficial after this year’s drought,” adds Vavrus. Currently, the ground is warmer than usual, allowing precipitation and the first snow to be absorbed more effectively.

Vavrus also cautions that long-term forecasts are inherently uncertain. “These outlooks are based on trends and probabilities, not certainties,” he says. For example, the onset of El Niño or La Niña can influence winter weather conditions. While El Niño typically brings milder winters, La Niña often brings wetter conditions. However, Vavrus points out that the next La Niña event might not be as strong, making its impact less predictable.

Farmers are advised to prepare for a range of possibilities. “The best strategy is to be ready for anything,” suggests Vavrus. “If the ground is dry at the start of the season, it could last until spring. But if conditions remain wet, farmers could find themselves in better shape as the growing season approaches.