The NFC East is known for being the fastest growing division in the NFL. No team has repeated as a championship since the Philadelphia Eagles in 2003-04 (that streak will likely continue with Dallas’ season almost over). This week’s Thursday Night Football game will go a long way in deciding who wins the East this year.

The Eagles (7-2) enter Week 11 one game ahead of the Washington Commanders (7-3) in the loss column. This makes for an intriguing matchup as the Commanders, who were sparked by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles on NFL Thursday Night Football.

The Eagles (5-4 ATS) have won five in a row. They are favorites by 3.5 points over the Commanders (7-2-1 ATS). The over/under is 49 or 49.5 points, depending on the latest NFL Week 11 Oddswhich is the second highest total on the list this week. Here are my expert Commanders vs Eagles predictions and best bets for TNF Week 11.

Commanders vs Eagles predictions and best bets for TNF

• Eagles -3.5 (-105 on Bet365 Sports betting)
• Saquon Barkley rushing yards Over 91.5 (-110 on Bet365 Sports betting)
• AJ Brown receiving yards Over 79.5 (-110 on Bet365 Sports betting)

Jayden Daniels has been electric this season and Commanders fans are pumped for the future. As great as he was, the formula for beating Daniels and Washington might have finally been revealed last week. The Steelers dominated time of possession, 36 minutes to 24, to keep the ball out of Daniels’ hands. The idea is simple: if Daniels doesn’t have the ball, he can’t make dazzling plays that lift his team.

The Eagles are perfectly equipped to do what Pittsburgh did. Behind running back Saquon Barkley, they have a solid ground attack that should have even more success against Washington’s weak defense.

Last week, when Pittsburgh quarterback Russell Wilson was called to play, he did. This is an area where Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts excels. The path for the Eagles to win is obvious. If you’re on Philadelphia’s side, wait to see if the point spread drops to three points, as this should be a close divisional game.

Then there’s this trend: Washington coach Dan Quinn is 0-10 in a row and 1-9 ATS after a surprise loss. This shows that Quinn has failed to get his team back on track.

Assuming the Eagles play this game on their terms, Barkley will rack up the yards. His rushing prop is one of the biggest you’ll find, but with Washington giving up an average of 4.8 yards per carry, it’s a perfect situation for him to run loose and free.

He averages 110.1 rushing yards per game. He surpassed 91.5 yards rushing in six of nine games. He may have done it last week, but he was injured in the first half and had limited touches even though he returned to the game.

As great as Barkley has been, he hasn’t eaten away at wide receiver AJ Brown’s production. Brown continues to be one of the most consistent players in the NFL. He demonstrated it again last week with seven receptions for 109 yards.

Brown has at least 84 receiving yards in five of the six games he has played. Averaging 19.8 yards per reception, he would need five receptions to eclipse that total. He also did it in five out of six games.

Moneyline Odds Analysis for Commanders vs. Eagles

Why Philadelphia could win as a favorite

Best odds: -174 on FanDuel Sportsbook

On a five-game winning streak, the Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They will benefit from staying at home during this short week. Daniels hasn’t had to play on short rest this season, so he may not be ready for the rigors that brings.

The Eagles’ biggest advantage will be the running game. This should allow them to set the tone from the start. They should stay in a positive game scenario as long as they don’t fall behind by double digits in the first quarter. When that happens, they are one of the hardest teams to beat in the league.

Why Washington Could Win as an Underdog

Best odds: +162 at Caesars Sportsbook

Daniels is coming off one of the worst matches of his young career, and the Commanders still almost won. If he plays better against Philadelphia, the Commanders will be there until the end.

The good news for Washington is that Philadelphia’s defense is worse than Pittsburgh’s. The Eagles have been good on defense but have only faced one team (Cincinnati) with a solid offense during their winning streak.

Daniels presents a different challenge than Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, so perhaps the Eagles won’t be ready. If Daniels starts early and gains momentum, the Commanders could spring a surprise.