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New home prices in China slow 17-month decline after support measures take effect
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New home prices in China slow 17-month decline after support measures take effect

China’s new home prices fell for the 17th month in October, but at a slower pace, suggesting Beijing could take a step closer to stabilizing the market after a series of support measures.

In 70 mainland cities, new housing prices fell 0.5 percent from September, the slowest decline in seven months, according to data released Friday by the State Bureau of Statistics.

Prices fell 6.2 percent on an annual basis, slightly worse than the 6.1 percent year-on-year decline recorded in September.

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In the four first-tier cities – Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen – prices fell 0.2 percent month-on-month in October, following a 0.5 percent drop in September, the data showed.

Tier 2 cities like Tianjin, Wuhan and Chengdu, and Tier 3 cities like Dali, Xuzhou and Huizhou, saw a 0.5% decline in new housing prices last month, compared to 0.7% in September .

Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.4 percent on average in October after falling 1.2 percent in September, reversing a 13-month decline.

Tier 2 cities saw second-hand home prices fall 0.4 percent, down from 0.9 percent the previous month, while prices in tier 3 cities fell 0.5 percent , compared to 0.7 percent the previous month.

Seven of 70 cities recorded an increase in new home prices last month, four more than in September, the data showed. Eight cities saw second home prices increase, compared to none in September.

“This is an important signal and an early sign of a turnaround in the real estate sector,” said Yan Yuejin, vice president of Shanghai-based real estate research institute E-House China.

An aerial photo shows a residential complex under construction in Huaian, east China's Jiangsu province, October 17, 2024. Photo: AFP

The statistics show the effect of a substantial bailout for the housing market, unveiled in late September, which included a reduction in mortgage rates and a reduction in down payment requirements. Since then, all four Tier 1 cities have eased purchasing restrictions for local or non-local residents.

In a further effort to stabilize the market, Beijing announced amendments to the taxes on residential real estate transactions to reduce the cost of ownership and motivate more buyers.

Additionally, last Friday, China’s top legislature approved an additional bond quota of 6 trillion yuan ($830 billion) to help reduce hidden local government debt and support the economy. The Finance Ministry also acknowledged that special bonds could be used to acquire unused land and reduce excess housing stock.

“This round of support measures has been a launching pad for market improvement, and we expect house prices to increase slightly in the short term, while an overall market stabilization could take a some time,” said Guan Rongxue, senior analyst at the Linping Real Estate Data Research Institute.

Recent stimulus measures will likely reduce the decline in the value of domestic contracted sales over the next 12 to 18 months, according to a Moody’s report released Monday.

But it remains unclear whether the economic slowdown will be halted due to fragile home buyer confidence amid slowing economic growth and incomes, combined with concerns over unfinished housing, the ratings firm added.

Nationwide, the top 100 developers sold 435.5 billion yuan worth of houses in October, up 73 percent from September, according to data compiled by China Real Estate Information Corp. Struggling developers including China Vanke, Longfor Group and China Jinmao last week reported their October sales rose 23 percent to 66 percent.

Some developers nevertheless recognized the difficulties ahead. Yang Huiyan, president of Country Garden, told staff that “the challenge remains” during an internal meeting a week ago. And Hu Baosen, founder and chairman of Central China Real Estate, said last Thursday that the company had to “hold on” in a slow market.

More information from the South China Morning Post:

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