Members of the Philippine Navy’s elite special operations forces conduct a ship capture exercise off the coast of Zamboanga. (Martin San Diego/Washington Post)

ZAMBOANGA, Philippines – For half a century, Filipino soldiers deployed in the country’s southwest have dedicated themselves to suppressing separatist movements led by Islamist rebels. Today, troops are being retrained to confront what their leaders see as a different and urgent threat: China.

Chinese forces in the South China Sea, a strategic waterway claimed in part by the Philippines and six other governments, have become increasingly assertive, posing not only a threat to Philippine security but also challenging efforts led by the West to contain

China’s power in the wider region, according to Philippine leaders and Western security analysts.

The Philippine military must review its capabilities after decades of focusing on internal guerrilla wars, military analysts say.

Recently, Philippine lawmakers allocated the largest share of the military modernization budget to the navy for the first time. After spending billions of dollars fighting on jungle battlefields, the government is now increasing its purchases of missiles, fighter jets and warships.

Philippine leaders say they can make the change because the country has achieved relative peace with rebels in the southern islands. Money that had been spent on counterinsurgency campaigns can be reallocated to air and naval patrols, these leaders say. The Philippine Marine Corps can be retrained to fight foreign forces rather than militants.

But while violence in predominantly Muslim Mindanao has ebbed from its peak, the situation is more precarious than Philippine leaders have indicated, according to data from conflict monitoring groups and interviews in seven cities and towns. villages in the region, rarely visited by the international community. journalists.

“The idea of ​​a new Philippine posture toward territorial defense only works if real and lasting peace exists in Mindanao,” said Brian Harding, a Southeast Asia analyst at the American Institute for peace, which called on Washington to be more involved in peacemaking efforts in the south. “Mindanao is where the rubber hits the road.”

The Muslim Moro people of Mindanao, a minority in a predominantly Catholic country, fought for centuries outside of domination, first against Spanish and American colonizers, then against the Philippine army. Radical Moro groups linked to the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda have carried out kidnappings, beheadings and bombings.

In 2019, a peace deal and plebiscite paved the way for semi-autonomous rule of part of Mindanao by its largest separatist group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), ushering in a period of calm. Tens of thousands of rebels have laid down their arms, says the national government. The cities where the most violent clashes took place were declared “insurgency free”.

But in Mindanao, residents say insecurity is on the rise again, fueled by Moro infighting and frustration over broken promises of new jobs and development.

Some rebels who apparently surrendered returned to isolated hilltop bases with their weapons. Government efforts to dismantle hundreds of thousands of firearms have been underfunded and significantly delayed. In half of the provinces of

In the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), there were more conflicts between 2021 and 2023 than in the previous three years, reversing a decade-long decline, according to Climate Conflict Action, a monitoring group Filipino.

This rampant violence is weighing on the international fight for the Pacific, said Navy Capt. Cesar Pangan Jr., assigned to the Western Mindanao Command headquarters in Zamboanga. To mount a credible defense against China, the Philippines cannot afford to spend money fighting its own citizens, he said.

Think of the Philippines as a home, Pangan added. “How can you deal with an intruder in your garden,” he asked, “if you have a fire in your living room?” »

The naval forces of the Western Mindanao Command have long supported the Philippine military in the fight against rebels. But in July, military leaders replaced the command’s counterterrorism task force with a new maritime security group, putting the Navy in charge for the first time.

Called Joint Task Force-Poseidon, its mission is to strengthen control of the waters surrounding the island provinces of Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi, and more specifically the Basilan Strait and the Sibutu Passage, two key channels connecting the China Sea south to west. Peaceful. To lead the effort, the military tapped the deputy commander on the island of Palawan, near controversial reefs where repeated collisions between Chinese and Philippine ships have taken place.

The Basilan Strait is within Philippine territorial waters but is open under international law to foreign vessels engaged in “innocent passage,” in other words, passing peacefully. In 2024, at least 10 Chinese warships passed through the strait three times, according to the Philippine Navy, which shared data that had not previously been reported.

The Chinese ships did not violate international law, but Rear Adm. Francisco Tagamolila Jr. said it had been “aggressive” in monitoring the strait and had expanded surveillance by improving radar systems under -sailors. Officers of the command attend conferences on when foreign vessels can legally be stopped and searched under international law. Training exercises that once focused on pursuing rebels in small speedboats now focus on boarding large hostile ships.

In the coming years, the military plans to add “forward operating bases” on Basilan and other islands that will support an increased presence at sea, commanders said. And instead of buying rifles and grenades, as it has done for years to combat militants, the command will stock up on weapons that will help the Philippines assert its maritime claims and resist intruders, said Colonel Allen Van Estrera, chief of operations.

The move to what Manila calls the West Philippine Sea has drawn sharp criticism from China, which has warned the Philippines against “playing with fire” in the disputed waters and vowed to ” crush any hostile encroachment.”

In a statement, Chinese Embassy spokesperson in Washington, Liu Pengyu, said China has the right to “enjoy freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea in accordance with international law” and blamed the maritime tensions on Philippine provocation. “Every time maritime disputes between China and the Philippines escalate, it is due to the violation and provocation of the Philippine side,” Liu said.

The densely forested island of Basilan is the birthplace of Abu Sayyaf, considered by many to be the most extremist Moro separatist group. Just five years ago, the black flags of the Islamic State flew across much of the island. Philippine helicopters, aided by American drones, carried out airstrikes on secret bases.

Today, Abu Sayyaf is reduced to a handful of militants camping in the wilderness, authorities say. Former rebels, dressed in new uniforms provided by the government, carry out joint patrols with the Philippine army and police. Probably before the end of the year, officials say, the entire island will be declared “insurgency free.”

But local residents said in interviews that there were parts of the island still too dangerous to visit. Some have personal knowledge of rocket launchers and machine guns stashed on top of mist-covered hills. In August, hours after the hamlet of Tipo-Tipo, a former Abu Sayyaf stronghold, held celebrations to declare itself rid of the organization, two bombs were set off in front of municipal buildings. Ibrahim Fernandez, 45, a former Abu Sayyaf commander in the area, said it was Abu Sayyaf. “It was a message,” Fernandez said, “to say that they are still here.”

With two decades of fighting behind him, Fernandez surrendered in 2017. Fighters like him were promised amnesty, jobs, housing and health care, but few of those promises came to fruition, he said. he declared. He knows insurgents who have returned to their old bases, frustrated. He stuck it out, taking security jobs to support his family while searching for more lucrative work. “I’m a very patient man,” Fernandez said with a tight smile. “Not everyone can wait like me.”

In Marawi, a city in central Mindanano where the Philippine military waged a months-long battle against Islamic State-linked militants in 2017, frustration is mounting among residents waiting to be compensated for the destruction of their houses. In Cotabato, home of the BARMM leadership, violence is rising between rival Moro groups, some of whom do not believe the war for autonomy is over.

Naguib Sinarimbo, a prominent Moro leader, has long advocated for the military to reduce its presence in Mindanao. But speaking in September from Cotabato, amid a wave of political assassinations by Moro attackers, Sinarimbo, 52, said the military cannot back down if instability continues to grow. Without the army, he said, the police will not be able to deal with the violence that could accompany the election campaign planned for next year.

These concerns about instability risk making military rotation more difficult. In recent months, two Black Hawk helicopters that were supposed to help monitor shipping lanes have been deployed inland near Cotabato, commanders said, to scan for enemies there.

Bobby Lagsa contributed to this report.