Palestinians warm themselves near the fire in the rubble of destroyed buildings in the Bureij refugee camp, in the central Gaza Strip, on November 16, 2024. | Photo credit: AFP

The story so far:

Saudi Arabia hosted a summit leaders of Arab and Islamic countries last week to discuss the Palestinian issue. The summit demanded an immediate end to Israeli military aggression against Gaza and Lebanon.

What did the leaders say?

In their final statement, the leaders condemned the Israeli army’s “shocking and horrific crimes”, its “crime of genocide” and its “ethnic cleansing” in Gaza, and called for the creation of an “independent” international committee and credible” to investigate these crimes. He called for measures to end the Israeli occupation and “establish an independent and sovereign Palestinian state along the lines of June 4, 1967, with occupied Al-Quds (Jerusalem) as its capital, based on the two-way solution.” states and in accordance with the two-state solution.” with approved references and the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative.”

What is the significance of the summit?

In recent years, Arab countries have shown their desire to improve, or even normalize, their relations with Israel by sidestepping the Palestinian issue, in violation of the spirit of the Arab Peace Initiative, which promised recognition to Israel in exchange for the creation of a Palestinian state. In 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan normalized relations with Israel under an agreement called the Abraham Accords. In the past, Arab-Israeli normalization – Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994 – has been accompanied by some Israeli compromises. Israel signed the Middle East Peace Framework with Egypt in 1979 (following the Camp David Accord), agreeing to establish an autonomous Palestinian Authority in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, and the agreement Israel-Jordan (the Wadi Araba Treaty) following the 1993 Oslo Accord, which laid the foundation for the Palestinian National Authority.

But when the Abraham Accords were signed, the Palestinians got nothing. After the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 And Israel’s war of retaliation against Gaza (and in the West Bank), Arabs condemned Israeli actions but refrained from provoking the Jewish state. However, their unease and anger at Israel’s war was evident. At the Riyadh summit, they came together and expressed their collective anger and sent a message to Israel and the United States that resolving the Palestinian issue is the key to peace in West Asia.

Where are Saudi-Israeli relations?

In September 2023, Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, declared that the kingdom was at an advanced stage of finalizing a normalization agreement with Israel. For both the United States and Israel, an agreement with Saudi Arabia was the logical next step in the normalization process. Arab countries were also increasingly wary of Iran and appeared ready to strengthen ties with Israel and build a common defensive shield against potential Iranian threats. Then came the October 7 attack and Israel’s war on Gaza. Israel’s indiscriminate use of power, which destroyed much of Gaza, has triggered strong anti-Israeli feelings in the Arab streets. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates view Hamas’ political Islam as a threat to their monarchical systems. But they cannot ignore the mood on the Arab street and in West Asia, which is overwhelmingly anti-Israeli and pro-Palestinian. A few months after the war, the Saudis declared that any future agreement with Israel should be linked to the resolution of the Palestinian question.

On September 18, Crown Prince Mohammed said: “The kingdom will not cease its tireless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that the kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without a such state. » At the opening of the Riyadh summit, MBS, as Prince Mohammed is commonly known, declared that Israel was committing “genocide” in Gaza, in his harshest criticism of the war. This reflects a steady deterioration in Saudi-Israeli relations over the past year.

Will the Arabs join the war?

Very unlikely. The last time an Arab country attacked Israel was in 1973, when Egypt, along with Syria, launched a surprise offensive in the Sinai and the Golan, Egyptian and Syrian territories respectively, which were captured by Israel in 1967. Egypt launched the attack to reclaim its territory. back, not for the Palestinians. Since then, peace between Israel and the Arab states has prevailed, regardless of Israel’s military occupation of the Palestinian territories. That status quo This is unlikely to change, as no Arab country has the courage to go to war against Israel. But before the October 7 attack, the Arabs were on the verge of formalizing relations with the Jewish state – that initiative has now been derailed. Today, even the United Arab Emirates, which had close ties with Israel, says it “is not prepared to support the aftermath of the Gaza war without the creation of a Palestinian state.” Arab countries have also entered a phase of detente with Iran, bringing a tactical end to their decades-long rivalry with the Shiite state.

This speaks to a subtle realignment in the strategic landscape of West Asia. Before October 7, the Gulf Arabs and Iran were at odds. The United States wanted to bring Israel and the Arab Gulf countries together, the two pillars of its policy in West Asia. Israel had proposed a joint defensive alliance against Iran, with the blessing of the United States. The Palestinian question has been relegated to the margins of the region. Today, the Palestinian question is again at the center. Iran and the Arabs have learned to coexist, at least for now. And the Arab-Israeli normalization process has been suspended.