Billions of dollars more multifamily loans are expected to come due next October than expected.

A new report of Gray Capital predicts that the growing wall of multifamily CMBS loan maturities over the next few years is expected to peak in October 2025 at $5.4 billion.

This forecast is much higher than the previous estimate for October 2025 of around $3 billion and is 25% higher than the previous peak maturity month of October 2023, the report said. This indicates that some of the 2023 loans have been extended.

The report, using CoStar CMBS debt data, compares the current estimated level of loan maturities through 2026 with the estimated level of those estimates last year, and it shows several other “significant spikes” where the value in dollars increased significantly. In addition to October 2025, the expected maturities also increased significantly in August 2026 and October 2026.

Courtesy of Gray Capital

A chart from the Gray Capital report comparing current projected loan maturities each month with where those projections stood last year.

These new expected highs for maturities are largely explained by the “extend and pretend” strategy of lenders who push back maturity dates to provide more flexibility to borrowers in a difficult capital markets environment, says the report. But they cannot be extended further.

“Spread and pretend is coming to an end, and as lenders are increasingly incentivized to end these practices, opportunities to invest in distressed properties will be increased, but at the individual asset level rather than ‘industry-wide,’ said Spencer, president and CEO of Gray Capital. Gray said in a statement.

Borrowers have received some relief in recent months as the Federal Reserve reduce the rates of 50 basis points in September and 25 more points this month.

But Gray’s report says rates are not expected to fall fast enough to save all borrowers facing looming deadlines and that many will continue to face pressure from high rates.

The borrowers most affected will be those who have bridging loans Or construction loans which have already been extended, the report indicates.

There are positive signs for owners of multifamily assets, the report said. A slow construction environment and falling interest rates are putting upward pressure on rents and asset valuations.

Overall, maturing debt across all commercial real estate asset classes is expected to peak in 2026a few quarters later than for multi-family properties, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimated in a research paper last month. Banks have $400 billion in short-term CRE loan maturities, according to the newspaper.