CALGARY — Canada is on track to become the world’s third-largest wheat exporter for the second year in a row as agricultural production in the Prairie provinces continues to increase.

International data from the United States Department of Agriculture shows Canada overtaking Australia for third place in the 2023-2024 crop year, and projects a similar ranking for 2024-2025.

Canada now lags behind Russia and the European Union in wheat export volumes.

According to the 2024-2025 outlook released last week by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, production of all of the country’s major field crops is expected to increase 1.8 percent year over year, and 2.4 percent more than that of the previous five years. average.

These numbers reflect this fall’s harvest, which is now largely complete, and show the impact of improved yields in Western Canada, where drought conditions were not as severe as the previous year .

But Canada also ranked third for wheat production last year despite drought, as Australian farmers suffered their own weather-related problems, which impacted harvest volumes. Canada shipped nearly 21.8 megatonnes of wheat to 65 countries in 2023-24, with the top five destinations being China, Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh and the United States, according to AAFC.

Justin Shepherd, an economist at Farm Credit Canada, said that while the global rankings can fluctuate from year to year due to weather conditions in specific geographic areas, Canada as a whole has increased its export volumes. of wheat over time due to advances in agricultural research and crop genetics.

“We saw a much smaller wheat crop for export in 2021 due to a fairly significant drought in the Prairies that year. But overall, as long as Canada is able to produce an average or above average crop, we have seen exports increase over the course of this year. time,” Shepherd said.

Global demand for wheat has also increased. The USDA forecasts that global wheat consumption in 2024/25 will increase by 0.6 percent, with increased demand from North America, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

Durum wheat, a variety of wheat used to make pasta and grown in the southern Prairie provinces of Canada, is in high demand in Europe and North Africa. The Canadian Grain Commission said Canada’s durum wheat exports through the country’s licensed elevator system are about 25 percent ahead of last year’s numbers so far this fall.

Wheat is a “thirstier” crop than other commodities like corn, rice and soybeans, making it more vulnerable to water shortages. The Washington-based World Resources Institute estimates that by 2040, nearly three-quarters of global wheat production will be at risk due to drought and water stress induced by climate change.

But Stewart Oke, a central Alberta farmer and director of the producer organization Alberta Grains, said Canada continues to invest in crop research and development, which has allowed the country’s farmers to continue to increase their yields over time.

“In Canada, we have worked very hard on the genetics of our wheat to withstand some of the drought stress that previous wheat varieties may not have had,” Oke said.

“It appears that in Canada we have been able to continue to increase our wheat yields and production despite significant weather challenges in recent years.”

He added that Canadian wheat exporters are also benefiting from the weak Canadian dollar, making the country’s agricultural products more attractive to international customers.

“Not only are they getting the best wheat in the world, but they are also able to buy it at a slight foreign exchange deficit, which just makes it more affordable for those buyers,” Oke said.

Agriculture as an industry remains governed by Mother Nature, and Oke said no advances in genetics or crop technology can save a harvest if it doesn’t rain. But he added that Canadian farmers want to continue to climb the world rankings when it comes to wheat export volumes.

“It’s certainly a proud moment for Canada — particularly for Western Canada — to reach this third place,” Oke said.

“We want to maintain this third position, both at the producer level and as an export market.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published October 28, 2024.

Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press