What could the election of West Vancouver-Sea for Sky BC Green Party MP Jeremy Valeriote mean for Squamish, given some of his promises as a candidate and the precarious state of the provincial result?

We won’t know for sure how much power the Greens have until the remaining 65,000 ballots are counted, along with the recount. Elections BC says the process will begin on Saturday and end on October 28.

However, if the original seat count from October 19 holds – 46 for the NDP, 45 for the Conservatives and 2 for the BC Greens, then these two Green MPs – Valeriote and Rob Botterell from Saanich North could hold the seat. balance of power in the Legislative Assembly. .

To obtain a majority, a party needs 47 seats.

The basics

If the balance of power remains the same after the final count, the NDP will need the support of the two Green MPs in “confidence” votes to reach the majority necessary for the government to govern.

Not everything passed in the Legislature is a vote of confidence.

Confidence votes traditionally concern larger financial items and include the Speech from the Throne and the provincial budget.

Votes of confidence can also come from the opposition or the government.

“If the government loses such a vote, it is normally expected to resign or request, through the Prime Minister, the dissolution of the Legislative Assembly in order to allow a provincial general election to be held,” it reads. Parliamentary Practice in British Columbia, Fifth Edition.

What could the Greens get?

Nicolas Kenn, professor of history at Simon Fraser Universityy, who regularly comments on provincial and federal politics for Radio-Canada, was captivated by the entire electoral saga.

(Even as a kid, he says, watching politics was second only to the Stanley Cup.)

“Everybody had their eyes on your constituency,” he said, referring to election night.

During the campaign, Valeriote was the only candidate to call for the cancellation of the Woodfibre LNG project.

“Woodfibre can very well be shut down by a government that has the political courage to do so. Some compensation may have to be paid to the company, but it will be considerably less than the $2 billion in public subsidies it will cost taxpayers for the duration of its existence the project”, Valériote. said to Chief Squamish as the elections approach.

So could this be a condition that the Greens now raise as a condition of their support in negotiations with the NDP?

Kenny doubts the NDP will agree.

“The question is how much they can ask, right? There is the danger of asking too much and somehow losing credibility, and perhaps ending up wasting any aspiration to influence.” , he said.

And agreeing to demolish the Woodfibre LNG plant, already under construction, would be a “tough sell” for NDP Leader David Eby.

“David Eby hasn’t really touted his party’s support for LNG, but it’s there, and it’s a big project; to turn our back on that would, I think, irritate a lot of people in the NDP,” he said. he said, adding that there is a tightrope to walk for NDP supporters between its more rural resource development wing – union members and others – and its more urban and environmental wing.

“The economic cost of this would be enormous,” Kenny said of using Woodfibre LNG in this phase of the project.

He also referenced 2017, when Andrew Weaver, then leader of the BC Greens, was negotiating with the NDP’s John Horgan.

The Greens failed to convince the NDP to stop the progression of site C.

“It has happened. So (dropping Woodfibre LNG) seems unlikely,” Kenny said.

Could public transportation be a compromise?

What the Greens could shake things up on is perhaps regional transport, another Valeriote commitment.

When asked during the campaign to comment on the possibility of finally establishing regional transit between North Vancouver and Pemberton, Valeriote said that if he had to “camp out in the Minister of Transportation’s office” to do transportation regional a reality, he would do it.

Kenny noted Eby’s phrase “shared values” used after the election in reference to his hope for discussions with the Green Party.

“I think transit might be a more realistic solution that the Greens could move forward with the NDP, because it aligns with the values ​​of the NDP,” Kenny said.

Other causes less specific to Squamish that the Greens could put forward with some probability of success could be a call to regional health centers or more support for people with disabilities, Kenny thought.

But he noted that the Greens are somewhat between “a rock and a hard place”; They have negotiating power, but probably don’t want to exercise it too much.

“Their negotiating power is also limited for several reasons. The first is that Sonia Furstenau made it clear that she was not going to negotiate with (Conservative Leader) John Rustad, and so right away it’s the NDP or nothing.” And the other thing is, OK, so if it’s nothing, then what does it mean? This potentially means getting back to the electorate in very short order. And, you know, probably no one really wants that. “

Kenny pointed out that the Greens have two new MPs who have just been elected, who need to learn the ropes.

He added that the party had probably emptied its coffers during the campaign and had not been able to recruit candidates in all constituencies. Furthermore, Furstenau does not have its own headquarters.

Here are some reasons why the Greens are probably in no hurry to launch a new election campaign.

“The NDP knows that and they’ll certainly bring that forward in any negotiations. So I think we’re more likely to see some sort of support on a case-by-case basis,” Kenny said.

Another thing the NDP will look at in terms of what it’s willing to give up in exchange for Green support, Kenny said, is the enormous support the Conservatives have garnered.

Eby was described as flip-flopping on issues during the campaign, such as promising to scrap the carbon tax and support for involuntary care, in an attempt to gain support from voters who might have lean conservative on these issues.

“If the NDP moved too far (to the left) on those positions – back to where they were, while moving away from those positions – then (could) potentially open up more ground for the Conservatives,” Kenny said.

“Because the other thing that’s important to keep in mind here is that… it’s the conservatives who have the wind in their sails right now. They went from nothing to almost forming a government.

“And probably the NDP is very aware of this and therefore does not want to bend too much to the demands of the Greens, for fear of opening up more support to the conservatives.”

Ultimately, however, Kenny noted that “all of this depends on the results remaining as they are” as of Oct. 19, and that remains to be determined.

“You never know,” he says.

~With files from Cindy E. Harnett/Times Colonist