We talk about it a lot party preference in Ireland, but less about its absence. There remains a political vacuum; a huge floating vote that can – and does – swing in all directions. So where will he land?

For more than 13 years, strong fluctuations have illustrated and emerged from this void. In 2011 Fianna Fail lost 57 seats, Good Gael won 25, Work won 17 and Sinn Féin went from a marginal presence in the Dáil to winning 10 new seats and 14 TDs. In 2016, Fine Gael lost 26 seats, Fianna Fáil gained 24, Sinn Féin gained nine and Labor lost 30. social democrats in parliament was born with three seats.

In half a decade, the political landscape has changed again. Fianna Fáil lost six seats, Fine Gael 15, Sinn Féin 14, the Green Party nine and the Social Democrats fell to six seats. While everyone talks about the implosion and “rebuilding” of Fianna Fáil and the collapse of the Labor Party during this period, ultimately the party that continues to slide after 2011 is Fine Gael . Over three election cycles, it went from 76 seats to 50, then to 35 and now to 32.

The current narrative – that Sinn Féin’s rise has waned since the pandemic and that Fine Gael is back in the game – is reinforced by the polls. But another reality is that Fine Gael is going through something of a crisis in the run-up to the general election. Eighteen – more than half of his current TDs – did not show up. These include many heavy hitters with serious name recognition.

Fine Gael says it will field between 75 and 80 candidates. Is it smart or a vote splitter? Is the party brand really strong enough for a first-time TD bonanza? Have enough people heard of Emma Blain, Grace Boland, William Aird, Nikki Bradley, Brian Brennan, Phyll Bugler, Cathal Burke, Paula Butterly, Vicki Casserly, Keira Keogh? The mass resignation and retirement of Fine Gael TDs is a void in a void.

In 2020, Sinn Féin’s brand was strong enough to elect a bunch of strangers. The party did not do enough to embed the recognition of many newcomers at the time in the consciousness of the country and its constituency. Sinn Féin remains entrenched in insularity. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil do not hesitate to contact potential celebrity candidates because they know that name recognition is important. I am not advocating a superficial and cynical approach, but a version of this approach for Sinn Féin could have been to recruit credible candidates from outside its own orbit, generate interest among the electorate and represent “change “.

The electorate presented Sinn Féin with the opportunity to seize the political vacuum in 2020. Large numbers of people gave the party a mandate. It didn’t solidify it. The scale of the vote should have led to broad representation. Instead, Sinn Féin took this breadth and translated it into idir dhá stól on policy positions. This has led to blurring and flip-flopping, generating suspicion among voters about the party’s position on various issues. If you want to represent a potential new era of political power and change, you must lead, not guess.

Yet Sinn Féin’s contraction in popularity has as much to do with the re-emergence of this political vacuum as anything else. Large swathes of Irish voters express no political party affiliation. In 2020, this was articulated as an attempt at something new. Where will he land this time?

The energy that fueled the rise of Sinn Féin has dissipated. But he didn’t go anywhere else with any real identifiable enthusiasm. Vibrations are low. We are in an era of voter discontent. This is good news for a cohort of politicians: independents. My sense is that the vacuum – this divide in party support, the unpredictability of voters (and their late engagement) – will reinforce the “someone else” factor. Votes could disperse in a pattern that, at first glance, might not make much sense. But it is about emptiness.

( Ireland’s housing crisis ‘on a different level’ with population growing by almost four people for every new house builtOpens in a new window )

Tonally, Fine Gael is launching a campaign of optimism and positivity. Social media adverts show Simon Harris shaking hands to Pharrell Williams’ decade-old hit Happy. This is a bold message in the context of many disaffected voters. Fine Gael is asking voters to believe and approve of something that, for those who struggle, is an illusion: everything is fine, and aren’t you just delighted?

Last week, a succession of stories – figures from CSOs on the The government is falling far behind its own housing targets; data shows individuals and families bought 846 new apartments in Ireland last year, while investment funds purchased 6,203; and the government’s ignoring much-needed legislation to crack down on Airbnbs and short-term rentals – all indicate that housing is once again becoming the dominant election issue.

Government parties cannot convincingly defend their record on housing. You can’t deny the experience of renters, homeless families, migrants in housing crisis, desperate would-be buyers and adults in their childhood bedrooms. Are voters really going to dance to the Fine Gael song “Happy”? Trying to fill a void with something meaningless is not a serious approach.