close
close

Mondor Festival

News with a Local Lens

CFL Simulation: Bombers’ incredible finish increases chances
minsta

CFL Simulation: Bombers’ incredible finish increases chances

TORONTO — Sometimes in football, something happens that makes you think.

In their regular season finale on Saturday, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers appeared to be headed to their first Western semi-final in six years. Sergio Castillo had missed a 61-yard field goal attempt, barely out of his comfort zone and the Alouettes had the ball with 1:05 remaining, holding a two-point lead.

Then the wind picked up.

A double from the Alouettes led to a Joseph Zema punt that Mother Nature would only allow to move 21 yards downfield. The Bombers got the ball back with just enough time for Castillo, with that gust of wind at his back, to kick a 51-yard field goal into the uprights with zeros on the clock.

The CFL simulation was just as impressed as many of us witnessed this stunning, unprecedented finish to the game and it only helped the best team in the West in their chances of playoff success .

The Bombers have an incredible 81.65 percent chance of playing in the 111th Gray Cup game and a 62.97 percent chance of winning the Gray Cup on November 17. As we head into the divisional semifinals this week, the most likely game in the 111th Gray Cup would be a replay of Saturday’s game and last year’s championship game. The Bombers and Alouettes have a 47.82 percent chance of facing off once again on the West Coast to battle for CFL supremacy.

Check out this week’s edition of the CFL Mock to see where everyone stands, as the 2024 CFL playoffs begin Saturday in Saskatchewan and Toronto.

2023 CFL PLAYOFFSCFL 2024 PLAYOFFS
» All matches: Saturday’s semi-final will take place in Toronto and Saskatchewan
» 3 stats that could play a big role in the Eastern Semifinals
» 3 stats that could play an important role in the West semi-final
» Buy tickets for the semi-finals: Eastern Semi-final | West Semi-Final

CHANCES OF APPEARING AT THE 111TH GRAY CUP
Team Projection
Winnipeg 81.65%
Montreal 58.54%
Toronto 35.65%
Saskatchewan 12.98%
Ottawa 5.81%
British Columbia 5.37%
CHANCES OF WINTING THE 111TH GRAY CUP
Team Projection
Winnipeg 62.97%
Montreal 12.32%
Toronto 11.75%
Saskatchewan 8.28%
British Columbia 3.43%
Ottawa 1.25%
THE MOST LIKELY MATCHES OF THE 111TH GRAY CUP
Team Projection
Winnipeg-Montreal 47.82%
Winnipeg-Toronto 29.02%
Saskatchewan-Montreal 7.56%
Winnipeg-Ottawa 4.81%
Saskatchewan-Toronto 4.69%
BC-Montreal 3.16%
British Columbia-Toronto 1.94%
Saskatchewan-Ottawa 0.73%
British Columbia-Ottawa 0.27%