minsta

2024-25 IU Basketball Season Predictions, Schedule Breakdown

Pabio October 29, 2024

BLOOMINGTON – Indiana basketballit’s the turn Big ten Media days in the Chicago suburbs earlier this month left the distinct impression that the conference expects the Hoosiers to have a say in their title race.

Even against an unbalanced scheduleand facing a tough road at the halfway point, Mike Woodson’s team should be among the most talented in the league this winter. However, they will first need to make the most of a modest non-conference to adequately prepare for Selection Sunday.

Meet the IU Basketball Team: Breaking down the Hoosiers ahead of the 2024-25 season

Mike Woodson happy with his trip to UT: “You can learn a lot from a game like this.”

Let’s break down the schedule by month, highlighting potential swing games and pivotal points on which a Big Ten championship push could hinge:

November

November 1: Marian (exhibition)

Marian will be a sort of homecoming, like Pat Knight brings his team in Bloomington for the first time in his term.

November 6: UES-Edwardsville

November 10: Eastern Illinois

November 16: South Carolina

November 21: UNC Greensboro

This has to be a 4-0 run, and probably one with some style points thrown in. Part of what hurt IU’s efficiency numbers last season was the number of too-close wins against poorer teams early in the schedule. South Carolina made the NCAA Tournament last season, but roster churn dampened expectations this winter. The Gamecocks rank 13^th out of 16 teams in Bart Torvik’s preseason SEC projections.

November 27: Louisville (at Battle 4 Atlantis)

November 28: TBD (at Battle 4 Atlantis)

November 29: TBD (at Battle 4 Atlantis)

In a sense, IU had the best possible opportunity here. The problem is, the Hoosiers need to get hold of it, or they risk getting virtually nothing of value out of their non-conference schedule.

First, they need to beat a much-improved Louisville team. Next, they’ll want to get Gonzaga, not West Virginia, in their second game, and finally, they’ll almost certainly want Arizona among the four teams on the opposite side of the bracket.

As it stands, there are only three teams in this area in Torvik’s preseason top 50, and Indiana can’t contend. There might be some overall quality to be salvaged here, from Quad 2 or perhaps even Quad 1 wins elsewhere in the field. But the only way to guarantee quality wins on the trip to the Bahamas is to beat at least Gonzaga or Arizona, and more likely both.

It’s a terribly narrow needle to thread.

December

December 3: Sam Houston State

December 6: Miami (Ohio)

December 9: Minnesota

December 13: in Nebraska

December 21: UT-Chattanooga

December 29: Winthrop

Six games in 31 days is about as generous as you can be with a vacation schedule. The Hoosiers will play their first real road game in this sequence, at Nebraska. Everything else is, on paper, a must-have for so many November home games.

The layoffs around Christmas leave a hole carved out for Indiana to resume its series with Kentucky starting next season. IU needs to win all five of its home games here at a minimum, but a perfect December really wouldn’t hurt. It’s because of January.

January

January 2: Rutgers

January 5: at Penn State (in Philadelphia)

January 8: USC

January 11: in Iowa

January 14: Illinois

January 17: at Ohio State

January 22: at Northwestern

January 26: Maryland

January 31: at Purdue

The busiest month on the Hoosier calendar is also the most difficult. After returning to the Big Ten against Rutgers’ dynamic freshman duo, Woodson’s team embarks on a seven-in-11 road series spanning most of January and half of February.

That includes Penn State at the Palestra, a trip to Iowa, a look at Ohio State’s resurgence and road dates at Northwestern and Purdue, tough arenas for Indiana in recent years. And it’s only January.

This is the crucible in which IU’s Big Ten title credentials will be tested. Extend that streak into February and the Hoosiers will face six true road games in nine. If we’re talking records here, an optimistic reading for January would likely top out around 6-3. Winning every home game, no matter how difficult, seems essential.

FEBRUARY

February 4: in Wisconsin

February 8: Michigan

February 11: at Michigan State

February 14: UCLA

February 23: Purdue

February 26: Penn State

The reward for a difficult January is a more manageable February.

The Hoosiers will have to get by early in the month — if you want a bold call, this could be the year they finally win in Madison — but they’ll finish it at home for 17 straight days. Still, the tests are tough: Purdue, UCLA, and Michigan State could all be considered in the Big Ten race, Michigan has a formidable roster in Dusty May’s first year, and Penn State and Wisconsin have given shots to Indiana last season.

March

March 1: in Washington

March 4: at Oregon

March 8: Ohio State

March 12-16: Big Ten Tournament (in Indianapolis)

There are likely other ideal holes in the calendar for that extended West Coast trip. Yes, every team in the conference has one, but plugging it in at the end of a demanding season doesn’t seem preferable.

Still, that’s what IU will have to navigate if it’s still in the conference title race come March. The Hoosiers appear favorites in at least two of those games, if not all three. A 3-0 finish could be the difference between another Big Ten title and another season spent wondering when the next one will come.

IU Basketball Record Prediction 2024-25

Save: 22-9, 13-7

Torvik has Indiana No. 30 in his preseason projections, which is sixth in the Big Ten. He has the Hoosiers 19-10 and 11-9 in conference play.

While pointing out that I voted for the Hoosiers to finish third, I may be even more optimistic about their Big Ten title chances than most. How Woodson puts the pieces of his team together will determine how good it is and how far it goes, but when it comes to raw talent, there may not be a better 1-5 or 1-9 in the conference .

If we look at the specific outcome gaps between Bart’s projections and mine, I think Indiana gets an extra win in the Bahamas and turns Ohio State’s or Northwestern’s on the road into a win. I also think it’s possible that the Hoosiers win all 10 Big Ten home games, which Bart’s game-by-game projections agree with.

For the record: I don’t think 13-7 wins a share of the conference title.

Achievements: Big Ten Tournament Champions, Second Weekend of the NCAA Tournament

This is where I get, uh, bold. Indiana has never won the Big Ten tournament, as its fans know well. But Mike Woodson has a winning record in this event, and only once every three years has IU generally looked overmatched (last year against Nebraska). This team is deep and balanced, and likely capable of pivoting to other scoring options when key players go cold.

The NCAA tournament projection is just a guess. This kind of achievement is almost always based on confrontations and draws. But my reasoning reflects what led me to the first of these two big victories: Indiana has deep talent that is difficult to prepare for on short notice, and that can serve the Hoosiers well where it counts .

Thoughts: A lot of it comes down to trust in the individuals and the end result. That puts a lot of weight on Woodson’s shoulders to make the right decisions here, which I think could take some time. This could, for example, mean losing a match at Atlantis. We’ll look back two months later and think the Hoosiers should have won. It could also mean a lower seed in the NCAA tournament, with so little quality outside the conference.

But I’m probably more optimistic about this team than average. This stretch of tough road games in January and February keeps me from truly rooting for IU to win the Big Ten regular season title, but I think the Hoosiers will have a say in how this ends, and I think with good health and good luck, it will be a difficult prospect in March.

Listen to Mind Your Banners, our IU Athletics-focused podcast, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.