With less than a week until Election Day, latest Fox News Michigan poll finds likely voters reveal Vice President Kamala Harris up 2 points over former President Donald Trump on the expanded ballot. That’s partly because Michigan voters are divided on who would be best suited to manage the economy.

The new survey shows Harris with 48% support among likely voters, Trump with 46% and third-party candidates with 5%. When it comes to just the top two candidates, the race is tied: 49% each.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew from the race and endorsed Trump over the summer, but he remains on the ballot in Michigan. He has 3% support, including 4% from two-way Trump supporters and 1% from Harris supporters defecting to him.

Among registered voters, Harris is up 4 points in the expanded poll, a 6-point gap since July, when Trump was up 2 points. July results were released shortly after President Joe Biden has resigned and endorsed Harris, but before she was definitively the nominee and Kennedy dropped out.

All Harris-Trump vote choice results among registered and likely voters are within the margin of error.

FOX NEWS POLL: MORE HARRIS SUPPORTERS THAN Trump THINK Voters WILL BE COUNTED ACCURATELY AND ACCEPT THE RESULT

Given the presence of several other candidates, it makes sense that neither candidate would match their party’s vote share in 2020 – 50.6% for Biden, 47.8% for Trump. The conventional wisdom is that support for third-party candidates fades in the final two weeks before the election, which could further tighten the race.

The remainder of the analysis focuses on likely voters and expanded voting (unless otherwise noted).

Part of Harris’ advantage comes from the small subgroup of independents who support her over Trump (44-35%) and some non-MAGA Republicans who have defected to her (21% Harris, 67% Trump). Nearly one in ten members of each of these groups supports Kennedy.

Overall, more Democrats support Harris (95%) than Republicans do Trump (90%).

There are also gender and educational inequalities. Women support Harris by 17 points while men favor Trump by 16 points. White voters with a college degree support Harris by 5 points while whites without a degree favor Trump by 13 points.

A sore point for Harris is among black voters. Even though an overwhelming majority supports her (81%), that’s still 12 points shy of the 93% who voted for Biden in 2020, according to Michigan. Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA).

Overall, Harris’ best groups are suburban women, urban voters and voters under 35.

Some of Trump’s best groups are men, rural voters and whites without college degrees.

The economy has been the biggest issue this cycle, and Trump has been largely dominant on that front, domestically as well as on the battlefields. But now Harris is nearly tied with Trump on Michigan’s economy. With only a 2-point difference, voters consider Trump to be better at managing the economy. Earlier this year, Trump gained 11 points (among registered voters) over Biden on this issue.

Trump also does better on the conflict in the Middle East (+6 points of better management) and on immigration (+16).

Harris is considered better in handling abortion (+18 points) and electoral integrity (+10).

Among those who say Trump can handle immigration better, 12% support Harris in the vote, while 14% say Harris can handle abortion better with Trump.

Voters give Harris the edge for having the right temperament (+10), helping the middle class (+10), protecting American democracy (+6), and fighting for people like you (+ 6).

The candidates are viewed roughly equally on their ability to make needed changes (Harris +2), to say what they believe (Harris +1), and to be a strong leader (Trump +3).

“Harris erased Trump’s run the economy, “which undermines one of the main arguments for her candidacy,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News poll with Republican Daron Shaw. “At the same time, Harris has built advantages over the temperament and electoral integrity and, perhaps, positioned itself as the least risky choice for some voters. »

FOX NEWS POLL: TWO-THIRDS SUPPORT DEPORTING IMMIGRANTS WHO LIVE ILLEGALLY IN THE UNITED STATES

Since February, more than four in 10 registered voters in Michigan believe they are behind financially, including 45% today. 42% say they remain stable while 14% say they are progressing.

Republicans, independents and rural voters are most likely to feel behind.

“Although the race was close, Michigan always seemed the toughest state for Trump to beat,” says Shaw. “The key development here is that Harris has won over women on the economy. We’ll see if Trump’s final speech bashing his plans to favor electric vehicles and regulate the auto industry is strong enough to take up the issue.”

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A few more things…

–Since July, Harris’s favorable rating among registered voters has increased by 2 points while Trump’s has fallen by 3.

— More than a third of likely Michigan voters (36%) say they voted and opt for Harris by 39 points. Among those who have not yet voted and are certain to do so (54%), Trump leads by 18 points.

— In the U.S. Senate race in Michigan, Democrat Elissa Slotkin has a 4-point advantage over Republican Mike Rogers among likely voters (51-47%). Among registered voters, it’s 51 percent to 46 percent for Slotkin — right where he was in July.

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Conducted October 24-28, 2024, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,275 registered voters in Michigan, randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (157) and cell phones (770) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (348). Results based on the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points and for the subsample of 988 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points. Weights are typically applied to the age, race, education, and region variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that draws on past voting history, interest in the current election, age, education, race, ethnicity, attendance of the church and civil status.