If the past is any indication, judicial recounts scheduled for next week are unlikely to change the outcome of last month’s election.

The final tally released Monday gives the BC NDP 47 seats, enough for a simple majority, the BC Conservative Party 44 seats and the BC Greens two seats. But two ridings, Surrey-Guildford and Kelowna-Centre, are heading toward a judicial recount, which must take place because the gap between the top two candidates is less than 1/500th of the total ballots considered.

New Democrat Garry Begg has 27 votes more than Conservative Honveer Randhawa in Surrey-Guildford. Conservative Kristina Loewen has 38 votes more than New Democrat Loyal Wooldridge in Kelowna Centre. Judicial recounts also took place in 2020, 2013, and 2009, with none of them changing the results in contested districts, let alone who ultimately won the election.

In 2020, 41 votes separated BC Liberal Jordan Sturdy from runner-up Jeremy Valeriote of the BC Greens in the riding of West Vancouver-Sea to Sky. Sturdy’s lead grew to 60 votes following the recount by Justice David Crerar of the Supreme Court of British Columbia.

In 2013, 35 votes separated Selina Robinson, then a New Democrat, from Steve Kim of the BC Liberal Party, second in the riding of Coquitlam-Maillardville. The recount conducted by British Columbia Supreme Court Barry Davies upheld the result by upholding Robinson’s victory.

In 2009, 32 votes separated independent Vicki Huntington from BC Liberal Wally Oppal in the riding of Delta South. The recount by BC Supreme Court Justice Cathy Wedge upheld Huntington’s election.

Elections BC confirmed this week that these recounts will take place on November 7 and 8 following a court decision handed down on Wednesday. These dates will help determine the schedule for the fall sitting announced earlier this week by Premier David Eby. The dates also promise to intensify the search for a speaker, as the BC NDP has actively reached out to the Conservatives to provide one, but has so far been rebuffed.

Elections BC confirmed this week that these recounts will take place on November 7 and 8 following a court decision handed down on Wednesday. These dates will help determine the schedule for the fall sitting announced earlier this week by Premier David Eby. The dates also promise to intensify the search for a speaker, as the BC NDP has actively reached out to the Conservatives to provide one, but has so far been rebuffed.

Martyn Brown, former chief of staff to former British Columbia Liberal premier Gordon Campbell, also predicted on CBC Radio Friday (Nov. 1) that the New Democrats would be able to govern comfortably, even with a majority of one seat.

“Right now, with the Greens, the NDP will have a three-seat majority, counting the president,” Brown said. “There aren’t many opportunities to bring down the government.”