As the province awaits the formation of the next provincial government, the lessons of the campaign affect all political parties.

The first is that all politics is local. Leaders can no longer say the same things in Richmond and Prince George. The fate of the two main political parties in the two largest cities shows the complexity of modern campaigns.

In Surrey, the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) won six of nine seats in 2017 and seven of nine seats in 2020. The governing party was only able to hold on to four of ten seats in 2024, including the last to be summoned. The BC Conservative Party has clearly endorsed his proposals on health care and transportation, leaving Surrey voters reluctant to support the current government. Many policies and concrete actions will be needed to entice Surrey voters back into the BC NDP fold.

Things were different in Vancouver. The BC NDP won eight of 11 ridings in 2017, nine of 11 in 2020 and 10 of 11 in 2024. In Vancouver-Yaletown, which would have gone Liberal in BC four years ago if it had existed , voters favored the New Democrats. In Vancouver-Langara, which has voted for the BC Liberals since its creation in 1991, the BC NDP received 48 percent of all votes cast. Vancouver, two years removed from the victory of Ken Sim and A Better City (ABC), leans center-left – something to consider in the expected by-election to replace the city councilor. Christine Boyle.

The televised debate was an opportunity for voters to get to know the leaders, especially those who had never participated. BC Conservative Leader John Rustad missed an important opportunity to make an emotional connection with voters, and his party failed to catch up with the BC NDP in terms of votes or seats. Rustad now has a new opportunity to lead a larger caucus. Establishing a mature opposition capable of moving beyond platitudes and focusing on issues that fall under the purview of the provincial government could solidify the position all opposition leaders want to achieve: that of aspiring premier.

The focus on BC Conservative candidate Brent Chapman’s statements in the final days of the campaign didn’t help the BC NDP. Only 11 percent of voters in our “Exit survey» told us that the candidate in the riding is the main reason they choose one party over another. The public primarily focused on the party’s ideas and policies (44 percent) and the party leader (24 percent) before making a choice. On nomination day, the BC NDP released a press release calling on Rustad to withdraw seven of his candidates. Four of them ended up winning their seats. Outrage over the social media posts is not universal, particularly among voters who grew up using these platforms.

Some British Columbians are open to developing a two-party system. More than a third (35 percent) would like to see a formal merger between the BC Conservatives and BC United, and more than two in five (44 percent) would welcome a union of the BC NDP and of the Green Party of British Columbia. The Greens will suffer a drastic reduction in the subsidy per vote. They will have to decide whether the prospect of fielding candidates in every riding, a feat that eluded them in the last two provincial elections, is still worth pursuing.

Oddly, the year will end exactly like the last: with questions about the future of the “free enterprise coalition.” BC United’s collapse had little to do with apathy and a lot to do with antipathy. Properly conducted public opinion research documented a decline that leader Kevin Falcon disparaged. This will be an opportunity to examine whether a centrist vehicle, perhaps leaning heavily on BC’s Liberal brand, is feasible. No one should say the mission is impossible: we just saw a Conservative party in British Columbia go from 2 percent of the vote to official opposition status.

In 2024, no independent candidates – whether well-known figures previously elected as BC Liberals or newcomers demanding change – have managed to secure a seat in the legislature. For those who chose to remain registered to vote after their leader left politics, the task was difficult. They operated without a party apparatus in elections where late decision-makers were either afraid of the alternative or hostile to the status quo. You can bring Rafael Nadal to your tennis tournament, but playing him with a wooden racket will yield different results.

Unlike 2017, this year’s provincial elections did not result in a change of government. When the vote is as close as this, a reset is necessary. BC NDP Leader David Eby is heading to Victoria with several ministerial vacancies and the need to regain lost ground in areas where decisive action is expected.

During his appearance at Live Chats in September, Eby acknowledged that the true measure of a government’s success would be whether people “have seen an impact… can see that their lives are better and that they are going in the right direction.” The provincial government cannot afford to wait for a campaign to start reaching the public. In the next election, voters will need to choose the BC NDP for its accomplishments, instead of viewing the ruling party as the lesser evil.

Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.

The results are based on an online survey conducted October 19-20, 2024 of 700 British Columbia adults who voted in the 2024 provincial election. The margin of error – which measures the variability of the sample – is by +/- 3.7 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, 19 times out of 20.