The Gophers begin a crucial two-game road stretch against Illinois this week before traveling to Rutgers to take on the Scarlet Knights. They will then have one final bye week before their final home game of the season against Penn State, then a test drive at Wisconsin to finish the regular season.

After three straight wins, Minnesota sits at 5-3. How many games does ESPN’s FPI matchup predictor expect the Gophers to win? Let’s examine week by week the percentage chance that the machine says it has of leaving with a victory.

The Gophers travel to Champaign as betting favorites to knock off No. 24 Illinois and ESPN’s FPI agrees with the betting markets. A win on Saturday could spark an exciting finish to the 2024 regular season.

On paper, Minnesota’s game against Rutgers is the easiest game on the schedule. ESPN’s FPI agrees, giving the Gophers a 56.9% chance of winning. PJ Fleck will face his protégé, head coach Greg Schiano, as well as former offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca and former quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. This seems like a prime spot for the Gophers.

The toughest game remaining on the Gophers’ schedule is a date with Penn State, who is currently ranked No. 3 in the nation. The game will take place exactly 262 weeks after Minnesota’s thrilling upset of the then No. 4-ranked Nittany Lions in 2019. ESPN’s FPI gives the Gophers a 27.7% chance of pulling off the upset, but Penn State has looked vulnerable this season.

Minnesota will finish the season on the road against Wisconsin, but this year’s game will take place on Black Friday. ESPN’s FPI gives the Gophers a 38.9% chance of winning in Madison, something they have only done twice since 1994. A road rival victory could be the perfect way for the Gophers to end to an eventful 2024 regular season.