November 2, 2024 6:00 a.m.(Updated 6:02 a.m.)

IN MIAMI – In the face in a bar on Halloween, Osvaldo Perez puts on his Donald Trump mask and give a thumbs up while mixing margaritas at the Mexican restaurant where he works in Miami’s South Beach.

The 54-year-old Cuban isn’t as much of a Trump fan as his suit might suggest, but he has no doubt who he will. vote for Tuesday.

“I don’t like Trump, but I don’t like Kamala” he said I. “Because Kamala is a communist. I think Trump will end wars.”

In Miami, a glitzy beach town with skyscrapers, lush palm trees and art deco hotels, support for Republicans is on the rise. It is part of Florida’s largest county, Miami-Dade, which is home to more than 2.6 million residents and is nearly 70 percent Hispanic or Latino and 17 percent Black. according to the latest US census.

Yet with a median income of $64,215 (£49,778) – around 15 per cent lower than the rest of the country – many are feeling the effects of soaring inflation and will be voting with their wallets next Tuesday.

“I pray to God that Trump returns next Tuesday,” said Miguel Lopez, 43, a construction worker by night and Uber driver by day. Born to Puerto Rican parents in the Wynwood neighborhood – a street art mecca that has recently gentrified into high-rise apartments with rooftop pools, yoga studios and cafes – he is frustrated by the lack of government help at home while he billions are spent on foreign wars.

“I don’t know what America they live in, because in the real world we are suffering,” he said. I. “People are suffering here and the government is doing nothing. We are struggling.

Lopez said that although his family was Democratic, he admired Trump’s resilience and business acumen. He considers him an outsider to the political establishment, which tells it like it is.

“Trump is no longer the same… His failures have proven that to us,” he said. “We still have this fight, this dog in us. He tells us how it’s done, that’s why I love Trump.”

How the Republicans took control of Florida

Florida was once considered the ultimate swing statenotably in 2000, when George W. Bush won by just 537 votes against Al Gore and a recount won him the presidency. Barack Obama won it by narrow margins in 2008 and 2012, before Trump won it back in 2016 by a margin of just over 1 percent. In 2020, it extended that lead to 3.3 percent against Joe Biden.

Miami Dade County, historically home to a large Cuban population who arrived in the United States after fleeing Fidel Castro’s regime, has been at the heart of Republican success. It now includes people from all over the Americas, with 54 percent of those living here being foreign-born, according to the latest census.

In 2020, although the county voted Democratic, Trump received 200,000 more votes in Miami-Dade than in previous elections, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis also achieved a 32% victory in his favor in the 2022 midterm elections. Now, Republicans hope to capitalize on that trend and make Trump the first presidential candidate to win the county since George HW Bush defeated Michael Dukakis in 1988. The consolidation of votes in Miami-Dade could benefit Republicans nationally, as the state The footprint of the Electoral College has already increased from 25 votes in 2000 to 30 in 2024.

Aubrey Jewett, associate professor at the University of Central Florida’s School of Politics, Security and International Affairs, said the changes in Miami-Dade have transformed Florida’s overall situation and revealed weaknesses for the Democrats.

“If Democrats want to get back in the game and become more competitive again, they need to find a way to appeal to Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade,” he said.

Professor Jewett attributes the rise in support for Trump to two main things: Republicans successfully branding Democrats as socialists, and the lack of support for progressive issues like abortion and LGBT rights among Hispanic voters. Additionally, Trump rhetoric about immigrants It does not seem to have had the effect hoped for by Democrats and feared by Republicans.

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump frequently made disparaging comments about Latinos, particularly when talking about Mexicans. Last week at Trump’s rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden, speakers used hate speech, including a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “garbage island” and accused Hispanics of not using birth control.

“When (Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade) look at Hispanics and others crossing the border today, they don’t identify and think ‘this is similar to the experience my parents had and my grandparents.

“Instead, they’re already assimilated … and worried about these new immigrants coming in, the ones coming in illegally, so I think that’s a big part of the story,” he said.

Kevin Carbrera, Trump’s former 2020 Florida campaign manager, predicts his former boss will achieve a “double-digit” victory in the state next Tuesday.

The 34-year-old son of Cuban immigrants is also a Miami-Dade District 6 commissioner and said his area’s voters are largely older, working-class Hispanics who “come from countries where we’ve already seen these left-wing policies will fail.” “.

“We have seen the failure of open borders, we have seen the failure of law and order fail, we have seen the failure of a president who tries to indict and imprison his political opponents, we have seen all these things fail. What we want is an opportunity to realize the American dream and we believe President Trump and his policies provide that opportunity. »

At the Westchester Regional Library in the Carbrera district, a steady stream of cars pull into the parking lot of the county’s busiest early voting site. Early figures show that Republicans represent 70 percent of the votes cast so far, about 15 percent more than in 2020, a trend that has Democrats on alert.

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Cuban-American Armando Font, 64, who arrived in the United States at the age of seven on a “free flight” from Cuba, said he voted for Trump because despite from “a lot of bullshit,” he thought he would be stronger economically.

“Inflation has skyrocketed,” he said, listing his extra expenses ranging from insurance to groceries to utility bills. “Whatever goes up never comes down. »

For Nethan Watson, who runs a bar in Miami’s Little Havana where the staff was preparing for an Angels and Demons Halloween party, Kamala Harris was the best choice to lead the United States on the international stage.

“We live in a country that is heavily monitored and considered a major power and leader. When other countries look at us, what do they think? I’m pretty sure we know what they were thinking in 2016.”

The 48-year-old said that ultimately he sees Democrats as the “lesser of two evils.”

“I don’t want harm from Trump, I prefer to take harm from Kamala Harris. I would at least like someone who would smile in my face while stabbing me in the back.