When political outsider Donald Trump defied polls and expectations to defeat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US presidential election, he called the victory “beautiful.”

Not everyone saw it that way — especially since Democrat Clinton received nearly three million more votes nationally than her Republican rival. Non-Americans were particularly perplexed that the candidate with the second highest number of votes would be declared president.

However, Trump did what the American system requires: winning enough individual states, sometimes by very narrow margins, to surpass the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House.

Now, on the eve of the 2024 election showdown between Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, the rules of this complex and, for some, outdated system are coming back to the fore.

Why an electoral college?

The 538 members of the US Electoral College meet in their respective state capitals after the presidential election to decide the winner.

To win, a presidential candidate must obtain an absolute majority of “voters” – at least 270 out of 538.

The system has its origins in the US Constitution of 1787, establishing the rules for indirect first-past-the-post presidential elections.

The country’s founding fathers viewed the system as a compromise between direct presidential elections by popular vote and election by members of Congress – an approach they rejected as insufficiently democratic.

Since many states predictably lean Republican or Democratic, presidential candidates are focusing heavily on the handful of “swing” states where the election will likely be decided – almost ignoring large states such as left-wing California and right-wing Texas.

Over the years, hundreds of amendments have been proposed in Congress to change or abolish the Electoral College, but none have been successful.

Trump’s victory in 2016 reignited the debate, and if the 2024 race is as close as most polls suggest, the Electoral College will likely return to the spotlight.

Who are the 538 voters?

Most are local elected officials or party leaders, but their names do not appear on the ballot.

Each state has as many electors as it has members in the U.S. House of Representatives (based on state population), plus two in the Senate, regardless of state size.

California, for example, has 54 electors; Texas has 40; and sparsely populated states like Alaska, Delaware, Vermont and Wyoming have only three each.

The US capital, Washington, also has three electors, although it has no voting members of Congress.

The Constitution leaves it up to each state to decide how its electors should vote. In all but two states (Nebraska and Maine, which allocate some electors by congressional district), the candidate who wins the most votes theoretically wins all electors in that state.

A controversial institution

In November 2016, Trump won 306 electoral votes, well above the 270 needed.

The unusual situation of losing the popular vote but winning the White House was not unprecedented.

Five presidents have assumed office in this manner, the first being John Quincy Adams in 1824.

More recently, the 2000 elections resulted in a complex conflict in Florida between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore.

Gore won nearly 500,000 more votes nationwide, but when Florida – after an intervention by the US Supreme Court – went to Bush, his electoral college total increased to 271, ensuring a narrow victory.

Real vote or simple formality?

Nothing in the Constitution requires voters to vote one way or another.
Even though some states require voters to respect the popular vote, they could be fined if they don’t. But in July 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that states could impose sanctions on these “faithless electors.”

So far, faithless electors have never changed the outcome of US elections.

Electoral College Timeline

Electors will gather in their state capitols on December 17 to vote for president and vice president.

U.S. law states that they “meet and vote on the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December.”

On January 6, 2025, Congress will meet to certify the winner — an event nervously anticipated this cycle, four years after a mob of Trump supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol to try to block the certification.

Last time, Republican Vice President Mike Pence, as Senate president, oversaw the certification, defying intense pressure from Trump and the crowd to confirm President Joe Biden’s victory.

This time, the Senate president – ​​overseeing what would normally be a procedural certification – will be the current vice president, Kamala Harris.

On January 20, 2025, the new president will be sworn in.

(AFP)