The Columbus Blue Jackets are off to a 5-5-1 start in 2024-25. We’d be willing to bet that if this record was offered to you at the start of the season given all the circumstances surrounding the team, you would have taken it immediately.

The team is trying to do the unthinkable by playing without Johnny Gaudreau. They are missing their captain, Boone Jenner, who is not expected to play until March or later. Kent Johnson does not need surgery but will still be out for some time. A lot of people thought it would be a huge struggle this season.

To their credit, the Blue Jackets surprised some people. Thanks to inspired play and good performances, the team was able to start 5-3-1 while dominating a few teams. We’re willing to bet that no one allowed the Blue Jackets to go 3-0 against the Avalanche, Maple Leafs and Oilers while scoring six goals on each of them.

Then there were these last two matches. A harsh reality hit the Blue Jackets as they were dominated 13-4 by two of the NHL’s best teams, the Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals. This shows that even though there were a lot of good things early on, the team still has a lot to figure out. Let’s look at the state of the team at the beginning of November after 11 games.

Strong attack

Even though it has come back to Earth a little thanks to their last two games, the Blue Jackets’ offense remains a strong point of the new season. With 39 goals scored in the first 11 games, their 3.55 goals per game ranks 11th in the NHL.

Winger Kirill Marchenko leads the way for the Blue Jackets. He has four goals and 12 points in his first 11 games, which is about a 90-point pace early on. Teammate Sean Monahan is right behind him with 11 points and leads the team in goals with six.

Alongside Yegor Chinakhov when he’s up there, this line has been one of the best lines in the NHL in 2024-25. They have a total of 13-18-31 in 11 games. Not only are they producing, but they have also been able to possess the puck, which has allowed them to post these numbers.

The other part of the offensive puzzle is defenseman Zach Werenski. He produced a 3-6-9 mark in 11 games, which matched a 67-point pace on the season. His health and availability made a huge difference.

Not only is Werenski producing offensive numbers, but he has become a workhorse in the two-way game. Since Sunday, his average ice time of 24:50 ranks him 7th in the NHL. He is a game engine that helps trigger their attack. If he’s quiet, chances are the rest of the Blue Jackets are too.

The key to the Blue Jackets offense is their forecheck. If so, they thrive on quick counterattacks. A big change from recent seasons has been their ability to travel north more quickly. Once the puck is collected, it passes quickly to the north instead of in an east and west group.

When the forecheck is on, games like Colorado, Toronto, and Edmonton take place. When it doesn’t, games like Winnipeg and Washington happen.

The defense is showing signs, but…

The Blue Jackets are outperforming teams on average. That in itself is a clear improvement. But the goal differential is +1 for the season after losing by four and five respectively.

Simply put, while there has been notable progress, these Blue Jackets still have a lot of work to do on that side of the ice. An average of 3.45 goals allowed per game will eventually catch up to them if they don’t continue to improve.

The Blue Jackets have sometimes shown what they can do. They held the Maple Leafs to two, the Oilers to one (sans Connor McDavid) and had a shutout against the Islanders.

Like their offense, their defense relies on their aggressiveness and forechecking. In other words, their ability to dictate terms will determine their success.

The Blue Jackets are built to play forward. That’s the importance of playing this kind of aggressive system. Playing forward allows them to stay in their system. We all saw what happened when they had to play from behind. They played into the hands of their opponent.

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The problem that ultimately needs to be resolved is one of consistency. Yes, every team strives to find that consistency. Yet their record suggests some great nights and some awful nights. This usually results in a .500 record.

We mentioned Werenski earlier and how he runs the game. His defensive game has improved a lot in this part of his career. Playing with Ivan Provorov as top pair went well most nights.

The second pairing of Jake Christiansen and Damon Severson was mixed. They’re either great or horrible. The third pair is in rotation and is largely a work in progress.

The Blue Jackets are still learning the details of Dean Evason’s system. Although players as a whole liked the changes, they show that they need to fine-tune their details. Don’t be surprised if you see Monday’s practice in Columbus focus on those details. They are on pace to allow 283 goals this season. This should decrease as the season progresses.

Goalkeeper

One of the big keys to how this season has gone for the Blue Jackets is in net. Would number one stand up and assert himself?

In the first 11 games, it’s Daniil Tarasov with six starts and Elvis Merzlikins with five, an almost even split. Tarasov got the start in the second half of a back-to-back in Washington, meaning each goalie got five starts through the first 10 games.

What do the numbers look like?

• Merzlikins: 2-3-0 record. Goals against average of 2.86 with a save percentage of .907.
• Tarasov: record 3-2-1. Goals against average of 4.02 with a save percentage of .860.

The surface numbers suggest that Merzlikins has been the better keeper thus far. The figures put forward suggest the same thing. According to moneypuck.comin terms of objectives recorded above expectations:

• Merzlikins: Allowed 14 goals on 13.27 expected goals. The -0.7 goals saved above expectation ranks 29th in the NHL among goaltenders who have played at least five games.
• Tarasov: Allowed 24 goals out of 19.65 expected goals. The -4.4 goals saved above expectation ranks 45th in the NHL among goaltenders who have played at least five games. It’s also fourth-worst in the NHL with only Stuart Skinner, Connor Ingram and Alexandar Georgiev behind him.
• For comparison, Tarasov finished last year with a higher than expected number of saved goals at 0.0 in 24 games. Merzlikins was -6.3 in 41 games. Small sample size alert. Jet Greaves in nine games has recorded +3.9 goals saved above expectations. All three will be on one-way contracts next season.

Elvis Merzlikins made 28 saves to record his first shutout of the season as @BlueJacketsNHL improved to 5-3-1 (11 points).#NHLStats: pic.twitter.com/6ZAahOdUrh

– NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) October 31, 2024

Based on the above, Merzlikins played better while Tarasov played much worse. Both have plenty of room to improve as the season goes on. But it was Merzlikins’ improvement that was most notable early on.

Upcoming Trends to Watch

Here are some trends we will be watching in the month of November for the Blue Jackets.

• With Merzlikins showing he is the better goaltender, will the starts play out that way? We would expect him to get the nod Tuesday night in San Jose and then see where it all goes.
• Can the offense maintain its current pace? Some regression was expected based on shooting percentage. The last two matches have shown it.
• The Blue Jackets are allowing less than 30 shots per game on average early. Can they continue like this? That number dropped from 34.4 last season to 29.2 this season, a drop of five shots per game.
• Adam Fantilli has six points in his first 11 games. Are we closer to escape? Remember, he has yet to play a single full cumulative season. It may not be right away, but the right steps are being taken in practice. He’s still learning the league.

Overall, it was a pleasant surprise to see the Blue Jackets succeed offensively while dominating a few teams along the way. This shows that Evason’s presence was welcomed with open arms. But they still have a lot of questions to answer. Let’s see what November has in store for them.