TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The area we are monitoring in the Caribbean has now been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. The system has a 90% chance of strengthening into a depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours and is expected to be called Rafael overnight tonight.

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The system is expected to gradually strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane as it enters the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, before cooler sea surface temperatures and increased wind shear help weaken the system and cause it to weaken. strengthen into a tropical storm by the end of the week as it moves over the waters of the Gulf. .

Another area north of the Caribbean islands is also being monitored this week for tropical development, but the chance of development remains low and no immediate concern for the United States.

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A high pressure system to the east is helping to keep this system in the western Caribbean and allowing it to slowly move toward the Gulf of Mexico as it strengthens early in the week.

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The storm will not reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico until Wednesday, where conditions will begin to become less favorable for tropical development.

ABC 27 First to know the weather

ABC 27 First to know the weather

The combination of sea surface temperatures below 80 degrees and wind shear aloft will make strengthening difficult, and the system will likely begin to gradually weaken before impacting land late this week.

ABC 27 First to know the weather

The most significant local impacts from the future Rafael at this time will likely be increased rain risks and rough waves for boaters and coastal areas. The deadline would be mid to end of the week.

The exact impacts we see in our area will depend on the storm’s track, but there’s a good chance that at least a few isolated showers will enter the forecast by Thursday.

Be prepared to dust off your rain gear, but know that this storm won’t be anywhere near the magnitude of Helen or Milton of recent months.

Stay tuned to ABC 27 First To Know Weather for the latest news from the tropics.